On Tuesday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (Gavin Newsom) cleverly fended off Republicans’ recall attempts, shifting the bet on the campaign from a referendum on his own performance to a partisan struggle around Trumpism and the coronavirus.
Five key points of Newsom’s victory:
COVID prevention measures can help the Democratic Party
Republicans hope that the recall is a referendum on the Democratic rule of California and the ensuing homelessness, crime, high housing costs, and energy issues. But in some political manipulation—with the help of expanding delta variants—Newsom turned it into a referendum on Republicans against coronavirus preventive measures.
The Republicans running to succeed Newsom opposed wearing masks and vaccinations, and the governor of California is happy to emphasize this point. Newsom aired an advertisement saying that the recall was “life and death” and accused the top Republican candidate and talk radio host Larry Elder of “selling deadly conspiracy theories.”
Ironically, after Newsom was arrested at a lobbyist birthday party in a trendy Napa Valley restaurant in November, the recall became more intense-he did not wear a mask and participated in a violation of his own Social distancing order of large gatherings. But his strategists have been arguing for several weeks that his leadership during the pandemic is an advantage for him-other Democrats should not be afraid to take leadership on this issue.
In his post-winning speech, Newsom continued to emphasize the virus. The governor told reporters: “I want to focus on what we agree as a state: we say’yes’ to science, we say’yes’ to vaccines, and we say’yes’ to ending this pandemic.”
Republicans resume unfounded fraud claims
Republicans’ baseless allegations of election fraud will not disappear anytime soon.
Even though they are still voting, Republicans still claim that the election was “rigged.” This is a baseless allegation-considering that Republicans performed relatively well under the same California election system in November and won four seats in Congress, this is a strange allegation.
But former President Donald Trump’s false election fraud remarks quickly permeated Republican politics. The former president enthusiastically added his own voice to these statements. Moreover, a few days before the end of the polls, the Elder campaign team strangely began to spread a link to a petition calling for an investigation into his losses, claiming widespread fraud—some Republicans worried that this was A message that his voters shouldn’t even show up on Tuesday.
In a state where the ratio of registered Democrats to registered Republicans is close to 2 to 1, and the Republican Party has not won statewide elections since 2006, recalls are always a long time. But Republicans have turned to conspiracy theories and unfounded fraudulent claims to explain the fact that opinion polls have shown that the losses over the past few months show that the party will not escape these suspicions. This led to Trump’s attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6th after Trump’s failure.
It is worth noting that Elder seems to be trying to get out of the inflammatory election charges on Tuesday night. In his concession speech, he told his supporters: “Let us be kind to failure.”
Nevertheless, some Californians still worry about what will happen in their state.
Mindy Romero, director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California, said: “This will be the second consecutive election to have aggressive and emotional accusations of voter fraud.” “I don’t see anything positive. The place.”
No lights at the end of the California Republican tunnel
The recall provides California Republicans with the only opportunity they may hold in a statewide office in one of the bluest states in the United States. Recalls are a way to avoid head-to-head matches that send voters to their regular party corners.
This is what happened when Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger won the dismissal of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis in 2003. Schwarzenegger’s moderate politics will never win the Republican primary, but it is attractive enough for voters who are tired of the current president. Some Republicans hope this will happen again this year, and former San Diego Mayor Kevin Falcona, a moderate, is on the ballot.
But the Republican Party has two problems. First, compared to 2003, California is now very different-it is more liberal and diverse. Compared with the last recall, the state now has 3 million more registered Democrats, but nearly 400,000 fewer Republicans.
Second, Faulkner has never become popular. On the contrary, Elder’s flamboyant style was honed in his decades of talk radio and echoed Trump, making him a leader among Republicans. Newsom felt a favorable contrast and began to attack Elder on the airwaves.
Some Republicans had hoped that the populist approach of Elder, an African American, would appeal to California’s diverse voters. But this didn’t seem to work.
“Larry Elder is exactly what Gavin Newsom needs,” said Rob Steuzman, a senior California Republican strategist.
NEWSOM out of the predicament
There is no doubt that Newsom won the recall election. But he may not be unscathed.
When he was elected in 2018, Newsom was riding an anti-Trump wave in a state that saw itself as the heart of the “resistance” to Republican power in Washington. The former mayor of San Francisco was considered a possible future presidential candidate .
Three years later, his state was faltered by severe drought and accompanying wildfires. The heat wave triggered alternating power outages. As housing costs show no signs of falling, homelessness continues to plague the state’s megacities.
The recall shows that Republicans are unlikely to defeat Newsom in a partisan contest. The governor can brag about an uneven victory on Tuesday, although the exact profit margin may not be known in the weeks after counting all votes.
But California has a large group of Democrats who may be eager to move up, and the state’s problems will not disappear anytime soon. Stuzman said: “I think some Democrats are watching this with bibs, forks and knives.”
Newsom’s political actions can prevent any major Democrat from running for election as an alternative in the recall, giving him time to portray this effort as a partisan scam of the Republican Party. Can he shut out challengers in 2022?
Signs of mid-term chaos
This recall is the first major election during Joe Biden’s presidency, and a certain political stress test was conducted on both sides before next year’s midterm elections.
Democrats have shown that even if their party controls the White House, they can allow voters to vote—traditionally a daunting feat, which is why the ruling party usually loses seats in Congress in midterm elections. Republicans are trying to win back the House of Representatives and Senate. The turnout for the recall is expected to be high-some experts predict that the number of people who voted in California in 2018 will exceed 12 million.
The rejection of the recall and Elder showed that candidates who are too aligned with Trump are still toxic in certain areas, including the current political battlefields of the Democratic Party and the former Republican Party of Orange County.
Finally, the recall is a referendum on how Newsom and Californians want their state to be governed, especially with regard to the coronavirus-the governor has a great influence on this issue. The mid-term will be a referendum on Biden. The power that the Republicans might win—control of Congress—is not the executive branch, the source of coronavirus regulations so far.
It is not clear whether the Democrats can defend Congress like their governors in the most populous states in the United States.
