Haven’t gotten the snowflakes out yet.
Everything will depend on the track of the storm, something that becomes less certain when a model makes a prediction. Especially if there is a lack of existing data going into the model.
“It should be emphasized that the energy leading to this storm system is still in the data-poor Pacific Ocean, and model and forecast changes, perhaps large, may still occur,” WPC said Wednesday morning.
Snow and ice forecasters are trying to get a hole-in-one on par three in golf, explains CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. “Better golfers can hit the green, but very few shots actually go into the hole.”
“Although the track is far from certain, models tell us that a major winter storm is on the way for some areas of the Southeast and East Coast,” Myers says. “Impossible snow travel, significant snow storm power outages and gusts of over 40 mph are all at play, and storm track is critical right now.”
What can we say about the forecast
Located over the North Pacific, the system has more than 3,000 miles to travel before impacting the eastern US — and it has a few days for forecasters to refine the forecast.
This storm is expected to make landfall in the upper midwest late Thursday and will likely bring an effective winter weather.
“This next storm system is poised to produce heavy snow and will result in treacherous travel conditions for the northern plains and parts of the Midwest to close the work week,” the WPC warned.
Winter weather watches have already been posted for parts of South Dakota, Minnesota and Iowa for snow and wind gusts in excess of 25 mph.
Snow will continue southward through Missouri and Arkansas on Friday, before some sort of winter weather reaches the Deep South over the weekend.
Rain in the Ozarks is likely to turn to snow, but how far south the snow falls depends on how far the storm system travels south.
Hence, “substantial uncertainty.”
“If the storm tracks further north than anticipated, there will be less snow and more snow,” Myers says. “Conversely, a storm track that moves south will draw more cold air down and turn some of that potential snow into ice.”
This will make a huge difference in who gets what and where.
If the northern route holds, the people of Nashville will see rain and winter mixed in before even snow. But if the southern passage occurs, they are more likely to be in snow the entire time.
It’s only been a week since their last snowfall, which disrupted traffic and left the city in a blanket of the white stuff.
Depending on how far south the storm travels, it could not only bring snow deep south into Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, but it could also deliver Atlanta’s first measurable snow in four years.
Atlanta may see its first measurable snowfall in nearly 1,500 days
Perhaps surprising to many of you, Atlanta doesn’t usually go that long between snow storms. This southern city sees an average of over two inches of snow a year.
Of course, whenever snow is indicated in the south, meteorologists start talking about it day in and day out.
This means that there is a huge possibility that this may not happen. Which is normal for a forecast of four days from Sunday.
It is plausible that Atlanta may record its first measurable — 0.1 inch or more — snow since January 2018.
It all hinges on the cool air and the moist air being perfectly aligned at the right time. If the cool air comes in too late or the moisture leaves too quickly, the city will see rain just like Seattle. The city can look like an ice skating rink if the time between these two air masses is slightly off.
It’s a question of rain, snow or ice that many people across the South will be asking over the next several days, hopefully consulting your trusted meteorologist with the latest forecasts.
storm on the east coast
Snow will definitely fall on the Great Smoky Mountains in the Carolinas and East Tennessee. Nevertheless, in the lower elevations, snow would undoubtedly be possible.
If conditions go well, parts of the Carolinas could see a significant snow event.
From Sunday night through Monday, the storm passes through Virginia. In such a situation, the question now is how far will the storm track east or west.
If the storm tracks closer to the coast or even off the coast, it will bring more snow to Virginia, Washington and the I-95 corridor on Monday. But if the storm continues inland, Virginia could see a mix of more winters, and major cities on the East Coast could see most of the rain.
“The guidance is beginning to come into at least some agreement that areas west of the I-95 corridor may be in for a high-impact winter storm, while areas along the I-95 corridor and east still hold some uncertainty. ,” says NWS Washington. At this point almost all guidance agrees at least moving to a stronger low on the eastern coast, it’s just a matter of tracking closer to coast.”
As is often the case, “20 miles can make all the difference,” he says.
About every six hours, another computer model run will come in and meteorologists will digest the latest data and start making new forecasts.
So, expect a lot of back and forth with this storm. Don’t determine the worst-case or best-case scenario for your area. However, be prepared.
“The key is to pay attention to the storm, but don’t panic,” Myers says. “You don’t have to go very far into the big “potential” winter storm around Christmas to find models this long, completely crumpled up.