The US Supreme Court’s decision to end the constitutional right to abortion has far-reaching personal and political implications and could help set a midterm election in November 2022.
This influence extends to the electoral participation of young people. People between the ages of 18 and 29 have historically been less likely to vote than older adults. But in recent years, he has been inspired to organize and vote in major national controversies such as school shootings and police violence against black people.
As a researcher with more than 20 years of experience tracking youth voting and examining young people’s political views and engagement, I believe the issue is now in the fight for abortion rights across states. It has a strong ability to inspire and mobilize young voters from both sides. — and that their participation could be decisive in major races across the country.
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Young people are advocates of abortion rights
According to Pew Research polling from July 2022, about 62% of Americans support the legalization of abortion in all or most cases. But this view is even more widely believed among people aged 18 to 29 – 70% of those in that age group support legal abortion. ,
Other recent polling boosted young people’s support for abortion even more – a CBS/YouGov poll conducted in June 2022, shortly after the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, found that 78% of youth legal In favor of abortion.
Young people are also the most likely age group to reject the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the constitutional right to abortion. Ninety-nine percent of youth disapprove of the decision, compared with 60 percent of adults aged 30 to 49 and half of Americans over the age of 49.
Women and people of color in all age groups – especially black and Asian Americans – are also more likely than men and white people to reject a Supreme Court ruling.
This is notable because in recent years young women and young women of color in particular have taken the lead in civic and electoral participation. Young women voted in 2020 at a higher rate than young men. Young women of color were more likely than young white women to talk to their peers about politics, participate in demonstrations, and register others to vote.
According to my 2018 survey of people aged 18 to 24, nearly half of young women said they supported or were active participants in the reproductive rights movement. Women of color were more likely to be involved in the reproductive rights movement than younger white women, our survey found.
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Many young people want action on abortion
For some young people, political engagement goes beyond abortion, as a Harvard survey in the spring of 2022 found that nearly half of young people think the country is on the wrong track.
And 41% of 18-to-29-year-olds surveyed in another poll say Dobbs’ decision makes them more likely to vote in the midterm. In the Pew Research survey mentioned above, more than two-thirds of people under the age of 30 reported having at least some degree of disapproval of a court decision.
Other surveys show that specific policies and laws to protect abortion are a top priority for young voters.
When young people want action on important issues such as abortion, they may feel inspired to lead political leaders. His frustration or disillusionment with particular politicians does not mean that he is disillusioned with his own political power. On the other hand, those who oppose abortion rights may now harbor positive feelings about politics: 19% of youth in a CBS/YouGov survey said they feel “happy” about the recent decision .
In 2018, my survey of youth ahead of that year’s midterm elections found that feeling more disenchanted or cynical about politics actually made them less likely to vote, but not more.
By my estimates, the percentage of young people who voted more than doubled from the 2014 midterm elections to the 2018 midterm elections – from 13% to 28%. My research group’s analysis suggests several reasons for this boom, including many groups starting voter registration much earlier in the year, and youth-led activism following the Parkland school shooting.
Similar dynamics were shown nationally in 2020 after the killing of George Floyd, who was killed by police officers in Minneapolis. In a CIRCLE pre-election poll, youth rated racism as the second biggest issue that would affect their vote for president, right behind environment and climate change. Nearly 50% of youth voted during the 2020 election, compared to 39% of youth who did so in 2016.
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Youth can swing elections in major states
The youth vote can decisively shape election results at every level. For example, in 2020, youth cast hundreds of thousands of votes in key battleground states such as Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia, helping President Joe Biden win all three states and Democratic senators winning Arizona and Georgia.
Now that states are deciding on their own abortion laws, ballots from governors and young voters in other state and local races may be especially important in places such as Pennsylvania and Georgia, where new abortion restrictions based on election results may be a factor. Chances are.
The impact is likely — not only for the majority of young people who support abortion, but for a significant minority of those who oppose it — with 32% of people aged 18 to 29 in a CBS/YouGov survey who said they would go to the Supreme Court. Accept the decision on abortion.
According to my research, Nevada, Maryland, and Maine rank among the top 10 states where young people can decide to run for governor. All three states have abortion protections, which could prompt young people to vote for candidates who share their position on abortion, whether for or against abortion rights.
CIRCLE team members Ruby Belle Booth, Megan Lamm and Alberto Medina contributed to this analysis.
