US President Joe Biden’s re-election chances are threatened by voter concerns about his age, the economy and crime, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found, creating a chance for Republican rival Donald Trump to can return to office in the White House.
The opinion poll shows that Democrat Biden, 80, is tied in a hypothetical election in November 2024 with Trump, 77, the former president leading the race for the Republican nomination: both received 39% of the votes and a out of five voters are undecided.
The poll found that Democrats have a large lead among voters most concerned about protecting abortion rights, while Republicans lead among those concerned about crime.
Trump remains politically viable despite a series of federal and state criminal charges for his attempt to overturn Biden’s 2020 election victory and his mishandling of classified documents since his leaving office. He is expected to spend most of the next year in court to be tried while campaigning.
But in a worrying result for Biden, Trump has a small lead in seven states where the 2020 presidential election is closest: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Michigan. In those states, Trump leads with 41% to Biden’s 35% and 24% undecided.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online nationwide from Sept. 8 to 14 and gathered responses from 4,413 American adults. It has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of about 2 percentage points.
There’s more than a year left before voters go to the polls, plenty of time to change your mind. The survey found that there are many voters in that situation.
Biden risks losing independent voters, who he won decisively in 2020. If the election were held today, Trump would have 32% support among independents to Biden’s 30%, effectively a tie, with 38% are undecided, according to the survey.
Biden has an early lead among voters who say they are absolutely certain they will vote next year: They favor the Democrat by 49% to 38%, with 13% undecided.
Since his defeat in 2020, Trump has continued to falsely claim that he lost due to fraud, which could destroy the faith of some of his supporters in the electoral process.
Advantage of abortion rights
Biden has an advantage on the issue of protecting abortion rights, something the poll shows has energized Democrats and resonated outside of Biden’s party as well. In June 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade, the 1973 decision that recognized the constitutional right to abortion.
Eighty-eight percent of Democrats rate abortion rights as important to how they vote, and one in six say it’s the most important issue or the only one they care about.
Additionally, one in three Republicans think the Democratic Party has the best approach on the issue, while independents favor Democrats over Republicans when it comes to abortion rights by more than two to one.
Voters expressed concern about Biden’s age and fitness for office. Seventy-seven percent of respondents, including 65% of Democrats, say Biden is too old to be president, while only 39% say Biden is mentally fit for the presidency.
By comparison, 56% of respondents said Trump is too old for the office, while 54% said he is mentally sharp enough to handle the challenges of the presidency.
Both men are viewed favorably by about 40% of voters, but 43% of Americans view Trump “not very favorably,” compared to 38% for Biden.
Crime is on the minds of voters in both parties. 88% of respondents, including a strong majority of Republicans, Democrats and independents, said crime would be an important issue in determining their vote.
Republicans benefit: Independents favor Republicans over Democrats on this issue by 34% to 22%, according to the poll.
Finally, voters remain concerned about the state of the economy despite the White House’s insistence that it remains strong: 73% of respondents say their economic situation is about the same or worse than before the COVID-19 pandemic.
When asked if they expected their financial situation to improve within a year, only 35% responded positively.
