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AON updates impact forecast Europe windstorm cat model – reinsurance news

Following user feedback as well as insights gained from severe weather outbreaks in recent years, Aon has updated the functionality of its Impact Forecasting Europe windstorm disaster model.

Aon Updates Impact Forecast Europe Windstorm Cat Model - Reinsurance NewsSince 1980, typhoons have caused $123 billion in insured damage in Europe and an average annual loss of $3.0 billion, according to the Aon Catastrophe Insight, 2021 report.

As a result of the team’s collaboration with global flood risk specialist, JBA Risk Management, high resolution storm surge modeling for the United Kingdom has been incorporated into the model.

The update will be the biggest since its release in 2015, and introduces a number of new features including extensive revision of the vulnerability component for all countries including expanded residential portfolio classes as well as modeling for the motor portfolio, expansion into Central and Eastern Europe . , and additional historical events of recent years including the Dudley, Eunice and Franklin hurricanes.

Reinsurers using the model benefit from peer-reviewed climate research from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, which has been incorporated into the model to address seasonal storm clustering and its impact on loss.

Aon Updates Impact Forecast Europe Windstorm Cat Model - Reinsurance News

These increased insights can in turn help reinsurers better quantify exposure and navigate volatility in their businesses.

Adam Podlaha, AON’s Head of Impact Forecasting, said: “On customer feedback and customer needs, lessons learned from historical events, and the collaboration between our wind experts and flood science experts, JBA Risk Management, this model update provides a complete view. of risk that enables users to make more informed and better decisions to manage hurricane risk across Europe, including the UK. 8 We are also seeing more and more insurers adapt models to this risk are benefiting from, a trend that we expect to continue.”

JBA UK Managing Director, Jane Tuthill, said: “The recent storms in Europe have once again highlighted the urgent need for more complete and timely insights to help reinsurers manage flood and wind risk .

“Gathering the expertise of JBA and AON provides new, powerful insights into both UK threats, allowing insurers to gain a greater understanding of the potential impacts from thunderstorms and surges on their portfolios.”

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