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Friday, December 02, 2022

Better signals coming from the wart, the lacunza, and the other side of the “wall”

Better signals coming from the wart, the lacunza, and the other side of the "wall"

The position prior to yesterday’s session recorded some disarmament and even a central bank repeated its June performance and returned to the market to buy titles thus keeping the prices in check, a coordinated effort.

The fine print is well known: Not long ago, the economic team proposed various strategies to break Guzmán’s distrust of debt into the peso. One, simply, is to try to spread out the maturity terms without a violent increase in the rate, a practice that investors call the “wall or wall effect”, i.e. potential difficulties to be avoided. So that there is no shortage of funds for the security that promises repayment after the election. If those pesos don’t get a suitable title, the fear is always that it’s going to go into dollars.

There are two data that should be highlighted. On the one hand, Sergio Massa managed to hold $148,009 million yesterday and cover maturity for $134,604 million at the second loan auction in pesos in October. To do so, it had to validate an effective annual rate of 116.6%, corresponding to the price on the secondary market. On the other hand, former Economy Minister Hernán Lacunza, an economic bishop of the opposition, decided to remove the word “reprofiling” from his vocabulary and sought to moderate his speech, talking about the state of the debt market in the peso. As reported by Ambito in today’s edition, the economist assures that “the last choice is a disruptive event”, under the hypothesis that the debt market in pesos becomes a complex terrain. “The dark cloud over debt in the peso in June did not stop, it was postponed to the third quarter of 2023, which is an election moment,” Lacunza said in a talk organized by a fund manager in front of some 1,500 executives. Finance companies and investors.

It’s not small. Above all, if one takes into account that, as early as 2022, Together for Change economists had pointed out that they did not agree with the idea of ​​accumulating commitments (which is what Martin Guzman was doing at the time). were), which generated “waves” associated with “reprofiling”, which Lacunza himself did in 2019.

it is understood that, To the extent that once the “wall” is overcome the opposition references begin to deactivate the “ghosts” around a reprofilingIt is likely that the finance ministry will begin to gain power to do its maturity roll-over, which will gradually enter 2024. At first glance, the reduction of instability resulting from political discussions is the more convenient of the two.

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