Hearing so much from Russian propagandists about World War III, we forget that its most likely scenario is still Pacific Asia, where all the conditions are given for a vigorous outbreak of war. The mix of unchecked nuclear powers—North Korea—with technological giants from an imperial past—Japan—, Anglo-Saxon allies—Australia—and an authoritarian superpower that wants to grow and develop—China—is already frightening. The problem is that we have to add diffuse boundaries, Hundreds of islands claimed by different countries and the feeling that only the external threat from the United States keeps the balance.
Now, for how long? On this Tuesday, the Biden administration made a new announcement Shipment of fighter-bombers and high-tech weapons to South Korea To increase your immunity against the threat of Kim Jong Un, The United States has military bases throughout the Pacific and its fleet patrols the seas, always alert for the unexpected. The so-called “Fourth Crisis of the Strait”, caused by the visit of former Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, was already about to set off all the alarms. Finally, things calmed down as Xi Jinping prepared for the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, but for a few days, the rest of the world held its breath, something that, unfortunately, we are getting used to.
It will be another thing when the People’s Republic of China decides to annex Taiwan to President Xi’s almost obsessive impulse. For seventy-five years, Beijing has resisted the temptation to invade Formosa Island and overthrow the Nationalist government. Post-war American resistance combined with poor economic conditions in the country made this possible. Now, things have changed. China now has such a powerful army and weapons force majeure, In turn, there are plenty of holes in the United States to enforce the fear and respect that has guaranteed security for decades.
[Joe Biden muestra su rechazo a ofrecer aviones de combate a Ucrania]
The conflict is served and the question is not so much whether it will explode, but when and with what consequences. In this sense, last Friday, a peculiar memorandum signed by one of the Pentagon’s senior air defense officials, General Michael Minehan, was leaked to the press and published on social networks, in which he asked all units to leave their depend on command. Preparing for war with China in 2025, minihan year Xi launches his attack on Taiwan,
a secret war
Minihan memo recognized by the Pentagon as authentic, although immediately denied, is undoubtedly a Big threat to Beijing, It is a clear recognition – no matter how hard it tries to qualify it officially – that the United States is ready to go to war with China if things get complicated in the Taiwan Strait. It can even be understood that its leaking is an alert in itself to discourage the Chinese government from going any further, In Beijing, as might be predicted, this has not gone down well.
On what is General Meenhan basing his predicament in such a clear way, to the point of turning it into an order for his subordinates? There are many paths that converge in 2025. To begin with, this is the year that Xi himself has repeatedly referred to as the year of the beginning of unification. Besides, it is post-election year in the United StatesIn other words, this is a year of administration changes: not only a potential new president, but new secretaries of state and defense, new diplomatic posts and new military chiefs if Mark Milley decides not to continue as chief of the general staff. Yes, something that would have been hinted at many times.
Minhan believes that such “distractions” may encourage Xi to launch his own attack. Secretary of Defense Lloyd AustinHe does not believe an attack is so “imminent”, but, as Joe Biden did at the time, he does not rule out that a confrontation between Taiwan and mainland China could lead to open war between the two nuclear powers Washington and Beijing. may cause. , In fact, the use of the word “imminent” is revealing: Austin does not rule out the possibility of war, he only delays it in time.
[Todo o nada: por qué ir enviando armas poco a poco para no enfadar a Putin puede ser mala idea]
Blinken, with Ukraine on the agenda
China’s response did not take long to come, even though it was a country intervention. Eleven months after refusing to openly condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, foreign ministry spokesman Mao Ning confirmed on Monday that it was the United States that “started the crisis in Ukraine” following Putin’s government’s ideology. and its preachers. In addition he has alleged Washington will be most responsible the struggle is open to him Determined to send more and more weapons instead of “seeking peace”,
It is unlikely that these statements indicate a change of position on the part of the Chinese government, although it did not want to turn against Putin during these months, it did not position itself on either side, always appealing to states’ authority. its territorial integrity. Yes, they are a warning ahead of the Secretary of State’s impending visit antony blink, who is expected to arrive in Beijing this week or next week. China is a major player in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict for a number of reasons.
The main thing is that the West needs Chinese neutrality. Putin cannot rely on such a powerful ally militarily. The secondary is that, as Igor Girkin — a terrorist affiliated with the Putin regime and convicted of war crimes — remarked on Russian television this Monday, part of Russia’s inability to destroy infrastructure in Ukraine is that bridges, tunnels and A good portion of the railways are Chinese built and controlled, as is the case with most of the world. They represent a trade route with Europe that Beijing does not want to see destroyed.
The purpose of the trip to Blinken is Continue the conversation between Biden and Xi at the last G20 meeting in Bali, It is difficult to know what the mood will be after this exchange of accusations and threats. Diplomatic relations between the two countries have been complicated for decades, but they still are. General Minahan’s memo included an important “I hope I’m wrong” and the truth is that we’re all basking in that hope a lot. Only two years left to find out.
Russia-Ukraine War
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