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Saturday, January 28, 2023

Cities with their eyes on the blue dollar: what they expect to be worth in late 2022

The blue dollar held steady this Thursday and closed at $320, although it touched $322 during the session, while financial currencies finished unevenly: Cash with settlement rose 0.7% and closed at $332.52, while MEP fell 0.3%. went up and closed at $320.10.

The informal dollar started the week lower but then rebounded and posted a gain of $8 between Tuesday and Wednesday. This is despite the high demand for the peso that is usually registered in the first half of December to cover expenses such as Christmas bonuses and bonuses, holidays, holiday shopping, etc.

For analysts, the rise of the blue dollar is “logical” in a scenario of excess pesos, which, along with other factors, means more monetary issue due to the soybean dollar. Due to this, They speculate that $320 is not the top of the blue, but it is still an uptrend.

Analysts expect the informal dollar to be in a range around the end of the year between $340 and $360,

Blue Dollar: Did It Make the Right Jump?

financial Analyst Christian Butler I consider that “This $320 price is more logical than Monday’s $312,

“Whichever aspect you want to check: if you compare it with inflation, it gives you that it should be higher; if you compare it with the amount of peso, it should also be higher,” he claimed.

The blue dollar closed steady at $320 on Thursday, but analysts expect further gains in the coming days.

Similarly, analysts attributed part of the rebound to high demand from people traveling to Qatar after the Argentine soccer team reached the final in the World Cup.

in tune, salvador vitelliAn expert in finance and agribusiness, highlighted that “The blue dollar adjusted for inflation, in real terms, is $24 below the 2022 average, $43 below the 2021 average, and $53 below the Alberto Fernandez Management average.”

Furthermore, the analyst calculated that “the overshooting of October 2020—when the country was going through a currency crisis—would be worth $591 to the dollar today”.

Why will the blue dollar continue to rise?

Butler insisted that “Given the currency issue, there is no reason for the blue dollar to settle at $320.”

And he added: “If there were no problems, I could be calm, but a bunch of pesos appear. It turned out that the other day the BCRA bought from the Deg-IMF’s monetary unit-treasury for $200,000 million and the dollar Still an issue for Soybean 2”.

In this context, Butler highlighted that a sign that “there are pesos everywhere” is that in the last loan tender “they offered three times more than they owed to the Treasury.”

One of the factors boosting the blue is the peso’s biggest issue of soybeans per dollar.

The analyst argued: “Why should the dollar stay with all the price increases and the extra pesos”, for which he predicted that “it will continue to rise”, and he calculated The month could end “between $340 and $360”.

For their part, economists federico glustein expects blue “It will go up again” in the next few days, when people start collecting their Christmas bonuses and year-end bonuses. The government announced on Wednesday that private sector workers with salaries of up to $185,000 should receive a bonus of $24,000 before the end of the year, while an additional $13,500 will be given to beneficiaries of the Potenciar Trabajo program.

Within this framework, the analyst projects that “$330 This is a value that Blue can reach” by the end of 2022.

Blue Dollar: The Dollar Effect for Foreign Tourists

Vislumbra Bottler Another factor that could increase the blue is that the dollar has already begun to trickle in to foreign tourists by this week.which allows the visitor to identify an exchange rate based on the value of the MEP dollar, rather than the official dollar as had been the case until now.

The Visa credit, debit and prepaid card company reported that starting this Thursday, its customers can use the differential exchange rate for purchases made in the country. Thus it joined the company Mastercard, which had already implemented the measure on 2 December.

“Cards have already started giving MEP dollars to foreign tourists and that he’s going to make a proposal to blueWhich often puts it at a lower cost,” Butler said.

In the market they speculate that the first operation of the dollar for foreign tourists will siphon off the supply of blue and lift it up.

For the expert, the effect “will be gradual, it will not be apparent from one day to the next, but It would be making an offer for sure; For example, that came from Uruguayan, Chilean, Paraguayan tourists who are more aware of this information”,

“With this lower flow, blue will definitely start to react, as there will be the same demand or more, but with less supply. This usually results in higher prices.“, she picked up.

As a counterpart, the analyst commented that the measure “theoretically, the way it takes supply out of the blue, it adds inflow to the MEP.” However, he believes that “the effect on the informal dollar should be greater than on the financial dollar, because that market is larger than the illegal market.” And he graphed: “If there are 100 million US dollars per month that move from one market to another, that volume is more important to the blue than the financial currency”.

glustein He also imagines the impact on blue caused by the first handling of tourist dollars for foreign visitors. ,Undoubtedly, per dollar income for foreigners helped to push upward, due to tourism and savings added to the dollarization of the date.“, forecast.

The Economist explained that “the measure will have an impact depending on the amount entering. If it is high, Blue will rise as long as it remains in the MEP’s line of fire, while if it is low, it will not affect Because players are already bidding in the parallel market”.

World Nation News Desk
World Nation News Deskhttps://worldnationnews.com/
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