Colorado could see 500 or more people hospitalized with the virus by mid-June if current COVID-19 trends continue, according to a new report released Friday by the state’s modeling team.
The new modeling report acknowledged that there is a high degree of uncertainty about what might happen, because so far hospitalizations in Colorado have not been as rapid as in some northeastern states with version BA.2.12.1. It happened after arrival. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that BA.2.12.1 is responsible for about a third of infections in the region, including Colorado, and is gaining ground over its cousin BA.2.
The new statewide COVID-19 model comes as Denver public health officials warned Friday that the city’s rising number of infections has shifted it from low risk to moderate risk on the CDC’s community-level indicators.
The Denver Department of Public Health and Environment urged people at high risk of serious illness to exercise caution because of the shift from green to yellow — or from low risk to moderate risk — on the CDC’s dashboard. Boulder and Mineral counties are also yellow, while the rest of Colorado is green.
Counties turn yellow if there were at least 200 new cases per 100,000 people in the past week, or at least 10 COVID-19 hospital admissions per 100,000 people. Denver had 209 cases per 100,000 residents.
“Since early April, the rate of COVID-19 cases has been increasing slowly, but steadily,” Denver’s Department of Health said in a statement. “While the current surge is not expected to be as large as the Omicron boom earlier this year, it is a good opportunity to remind our community how to stay safe, protected, and prepared for COVID-19.”
The new modeling report estimates 500 hospitalizations in Colorado that BA.2.12.1 is not significantly better at getting around the immune system than previous versions of Omicron and does not lead to more severe disease. Some early data suggests that infection with a different version of Omicron may not provide as strong protection against BA.2.12.1, meaning that people who had COVID-19 a few months ago could also get it again. can be obtained from, but it is not certain.
If BA.2.12.1 is more severe or develops more, the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations may be closer to 800. As of Tuesday, the state reported 116 hospitalisations.
“This could put some pressure on health care systems, but not nearly to the degree experienced during the previous increase. This is because Colorado continues to experience high levels of protection from the most severe consequences due to vaccination and immunity from previous infections. maintains,” a statement from the Colorado Department of Public Health and the Environment said.
Cases may rise to around 8,000 to 9,000 per day. It is not as bad as the previous wave, when more than 20,000 cases were reported on the busiest day, but it would have been an unheard of level before January.
“While there is still uncertainty about the behavior of the omicron subvariant, this latest modeling report provides us with several possible outcomes in the coming months,” state epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy said in a news release. “We are monitoring trends in several states on the East Coast that reached BA.2.12.1 before detecting it in Colorado, as many of our recent COVID-19 trends have closely followed these states in recent months. complied.”
The modeling team estimated that one in 108 and one in 149 Coloradans are currently infected. This estimate also carries more uncertainty than usual, as fewer people are being tested.
The state health department urged everyone to make sure they are up to date on their vaccinations; Get tested if they have symptoms and keep them isolated until you get your results; And seek treatment if they test positive. Several treatments are authorized for people who have risk factors for severe COVID-19, including compromised immune systems, diabetes, and obesity.