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Wednesday, June 29, 2022

COVID-19 cases hit last summer’s level of surge in California

Consider the first coronavirus surge of this California endemic era.

Even with an increase in home tests that don’t make it into official figures, the state is now reporting more confirmed cases per day than it did at the peak of its 2020 summer growth, and the summer is closing in on the level of growth in 2021.

But while public health officials and experts are concerned about rising transmission levels, they are not expecting a crush of the disease in hospitals, as the previous surge did.

“Most of the people we see at the hospital have a much milder illness than in previous waves,” said Dr. John Maurani, medical director of infectious disease at Pomona Valley Hospital Medical Center.

Several factors are at play, experts say. Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, a professor in the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, said that while the version currently in effect is highly contagious, it causes less severe disease than previous forms of COVID-19. , who specialize in epidemiology. infectious disease. High rates of immunity from vaccination or previous infections are also protecting those who become ill against serious illness and death, and medical treatment has improved.

“This is what endemicity looks like,” said Andrew Noymer, a professor of population health and disease prevention at UC Irvine.

Compared to a pandemic – a worldwide emergency – an endemic means a virus is “always with us, circulating, and from time to time we may have a surge, but because it is less deadly, vaccination and natural immunity Because of this, there is no seriousness to the number of people to be hospitalized,” Kim-Farley said.

Still, he said, the rising number of cases should be a wake-up call to vaccinate or promote people, if they haven’t already, and take other appropriate precautions.

“We need to be more vigilant, especially when in crowded settings, wearing masks to help reduce the rate of transmission,” Kim-Farley said. “In addition, masking is important for people who are at high risk of disease, such as the elderly, or those with multiple medical conditions, or are particularly immunosuppressed.”

Cases double in three weeks

California reported an average of 11,200 cases per day for the week ending May 17 – the most recent week with reliable data, because the numbers are based on what day a person got tested or got sick, not when their results were returned. Come, and take the result. Sometimes a.

This is more than double the number of cases just three weeks ago and five times the recent low of nearly 2,100 cases per day in the week ended March 21.

Cases have risen in every county in California, but the increase has been fastest in the rural northern and central regions, while the Bay Area currently has the highest case rates when adjusted for population.

San Francisco added 378 confirmed cases for every 100,000 residents from May 11 to May 17, according to the latest state figures. Del Norte, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Sonoma and Marin counties also had more than 300 cases per 100,000 residents.

Rates were lower in Southern California: 206 in San Diego County, 200 in Los Angeles County, 143 in Orange County, 132 in Riverside County, and 105 in San Bernardino County.

Kim-Farley said a big reason why the Bay Area is getting worse now may be that it did much better than Southern California in the last surge, meaning there are more people out there who are still susceptible.

California as a whole is doing better than some other parts of the US – according to CDC measurements, parts of the Northeast and Upper Midwest have higher community levels of COVID-19, which increases cases and hospitalizations Recruitment rates are based on both. There are a handful of counties with moderate levels in California, including LA County as of last week, but most of the state is still considered low.

“I think we need to look to the Northeast to recognize that we may be in for further growth here in Southern California, but at the same time I expect we use more masks than the Northeast, so that Might help blunt the height of the boom,” Kim-Farley said. They also noted California’s higher vaccination levels and higher booster shot rates among seniors.

hospitalized but still less

California’s case rate may return to an area of ​​increase in the summer, but its hospitalization numbers, mercifully, have not.

On a recent day when California’s daily average of new cases topped 10,000, nearly 1,400 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 across the state. In the past, when the case rate exceeded 10,000, many more people were hospitalized:

  • About 6,400 surges in the summer of 2020
  • About 3,700 surges in winter 2020
  • A jump of nearly 4,000 in the summer of 2021
  • About 3,500 surge during the winter 2022

As of Tuesday, May 24, hospitals in California were treating 1,961 people with COVID-19; Only that number was lower which was the last two months and almost three months in 2021.

It’s not all good news – the number of people in hospital and intensive care units has more than doubled since its record low last month. In Southern California:

  • Los Angeles County had 410 patients hospitalized, including 52 in the ICU, up from a low of 209 and 19.
  • 129 patients were hospitalized in Orange County, including 18 in the ICU, up from a low of 57 and eight
  • 93 patients were hospitalized in Riverside County, including nine in the ICU, up from a low of 36 and four
  • San Bernardino County had 60 patients hospitalized, including eight in the ICU, up from a low of 28 and four

But as Maurani, a physician at Pomona Valley Hospital Medical Center, points out, not everyone in the hospital is With have COVID-19 For COVID-19. For example, someone may come in due to a fall or fracture and test positive, but their case is mild or asymptomatic. Others may be in the hospital because the virus worsens an underlying condition such as diabetes or heart disease.

Maurani estimated that, as of recently in his hospital, almost half of the patients with COVID-19 are due exclusively to COVID-19.

Those patients are mostly elderly or have underlying conditions, he said. And while the percentage of COVID-19 patients who get vaccinated is higher than it once was, Maurani said it makes sense as more community is vaccinated. Most of the vaccinated patients are getting mild illness, he said.

Unvaccinated people are 4.9 times more likely to get COVID-19 than those who haven’t been vaccinated and promoted in recent weeks, according to the latest state data. They are 7.4 times more likely to be hospitalized, and 9.1 times more likely to die from the disease.

Accurate death data can take weeks or months to come together, so it’s hard to say what the current increase in cases will mean for the level of mortality.

Maurani said he hopes the virus will continue to become less deadly, with less severe disease and better treatment options. (He also emphasized that treatments are most effective when started as soon as possible after a person first feels symptoms – when patients come to the hospital with severe symptoms, usually late in the illness. and is more difficult to treat.)

But while the Omicron version may not be as deadly, it’s still killing people. Omicron was identified last Thanksgiving, and state data shows at least 12,700 people died of COVID-19 from December to February, making it California’s second deadliest wave to date .

so what next?

World Nation News Desk
World Nation News Deskhttps://worldnationnews.com/
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