Rio de Janeiro.- I always thought that the election would go to the second round and I considered it a good thing, as it would force the PT to come to a compromise., in the view that Lula would easily win and come out stronger in the second round. Now the situation has completely changed. Lula needs support, a five percentage point difference is a victory that tastes like defeatBecause everyone expected at least a double if they didn’t win in the first round.
A curious and worrying fact is that the two candidates in the second round are leaders who act independently of the parties. Lula PT. is greater than And, if he had been another candidate, Bolsonaro would probably have won again. Bolsonaro does not believe in any party, In 2018 he was in the PSL and led the smaller party to become the single largest party in the House. Now he is in PL, and his party has once again elected the largest bench. This election is different from all previous elections, which is like 2018 in many ways.
The previous ones that were defined between the PT and the PSDB were partisan disputes over ways of seeing the world from a social democratic point of view. Today there is a dispute between two personalities. We need to re-examine this perception of the average Brazilian, even if we don’t like what we see. To call the Left “progressive” is to classify those who are not “reactionary”. Is it like that? The country is not divided between “progressive” and “reactionary”, the reality is more complex. We cannot bring 50 million people into the background.
Not all leftists are progressive. Or a progressive defender of a bloody dictatorship? And not all conservatives are reactionary, Many people voted for Lula to get rid of the stigma.
We have to understand their concerns, their concerns. Show by example that you don’t have to be a right-wing extremist to get what you want. We don’t have authority to be able to direct these people, parties have to change a lot, If we imagine that people will be separated forever, then we will have to divide the country into two parts with no possibility of coexistence. It doesn’t happen. When the PSDB existed, these voters felt represented by a single party, although the centre-left, understood agribusiness, health issues and social programs.
The Brazilian Left Didn’t Understand That Society Has Changed, especially in the inner and periphery of the great centers; It is a very enterprising society, each to its own accord, a more capitalist, He does not want the government to come in the middle. This was already detected in a survey conducted by the Persu Abramo Institute in the ABC region of So Paulo and produced surprising results in an area that was the cradle of PT. expressed a desire for freedom of action, which had nothing to do with unions, but with support for entrepreneurship. The PT had already detected this trend and postponed the investigation fearing to face the reality.
The situation has evolved a lot since then. Bolsonaro captures society’s desire for freedom of action, at least in the rhetoric he sells the idea, and people literally buy it. The left and the urban middle class were deeply concerned about the lack of empathy, the lack of vaccines in the pandemic, but this did not affect Bolsonaro’s voters.
Bolsonarists, or those who vote for him even though they are not extremists, worry about what is happening to jobs, low inflation. They are more everyday things than concepts such as freedom of expression, democracy, fundamental civilizational values, but they do not weigh much in the depths of Brazil, which deals with basic questions of existence. I also think that, at a certain point in the campaign, high inflation and unemployment played a significant role, and helped Lula move forward.
But as the economy recovered, when aid to Brazil’s money hit a critical point, it fell apart. Same effect that happened when PT launched Bolsa Familia. This Bolsonarismo was born because Bolsonaro is the only political leader who has emerged in recent times to bring together this centre-right that unites conservatives, the centre-right, and the extreme right. Not that they are all right-wing extremists. In contrast, the minority is, like Bolsonaro, who defends radical principles. Most want a party that can represent their wishes, protect them from their fears about the future.