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Wednesday, December 8, 2021

Dodgers vs Braves: NLCS Scouting Report, Prediction

Series Schedule (all time PT)

Game 1: on The Braves, Saturdays, 5:07 pm, TBS

Game 2: on Braves, Sunday, 4:37 pm, TBS

Game 3: At the Dodgers, Tuesday, 2:08 p.m., TBS

X-Game 4: At the Dodgers, Wednesdays, 5:08 p.m., TBS

X-Game 5: At the Dodgers, Thursdays, 5:08 p.m., TBS

X-Game 6: on Braves, October 23, 2:08 PM (5:08 if there’s no ALCS G7), TBS

X-Game 7: on The Braves, October 24, 4:38 pm, TBS

X- if necessary

Season Series: The Dodgers won the regular-season series, 4–2.

The Tale of the Tape (Crime)

Braves (NL Rank) … Category … Dodgers (NL Rank)

88-73 (First in NL East) … Record … 106-56 (Second in NL West)

790 (Third) … Scored … 830 (First)

.319 (Sixth) … OBP … .330 (Second)

.435 (Second) … Slugging PCT … .429 (Fourth)

.754 (t-fourth) … ops … .759 (t-second)

.244 (T-5th) … Batting Average. … .244 (T-5th)

239 (Second) … HR … 237 (Third)

59 (11th)… sb… 65 (9th)

Tale of Tape (Pitching)

Braves (NL Rank) … Category … Dodgers (NL Rank)

3.88 (fourth) … Team ERA … 3.01 (first)

3.84 (fourth) … early era … 2.93 (first)

3.97 (sixth) … bullpen era … 3.16 (second)

1.32 (8th) … Whip … 1.10 (first)

9.04 (7th) … ks per 9 in … 9.91 (second)

Estimated Lineup

Brave: SS Dansby Swanson (.248/.311/.449, 27 hr, 88 rbi, 9 sb), 1b Freddie Freeman (.300/.393/.503, 31 hr, 83 rbi), 2b OG Albies (.259/ .310/.488, 30 hr, 106 rbi, 20 sb), 3B Austin Riley (.303/.367/.531, 33 hr, 107 rbi), RF Jock Pedersen (.238/.310/.422, 18) HR, 61 rbi), LF Adam Duvall (.228/.281/.491, 38 hr, 113 rbi), c Travis D’Arnaud (.220/.284/.388, 7 hr, 26 rbi), cf Christiane Pache (.111/.152/.206, 1HR, 4RBI) or Guillermo Heredia (.220/.311/.354, 5HR, 26RBI)

Dodgers: RF Mookie Bates (.264/.367/.487, 23 hr, 58 RBI, 93 runs, 10 SB), SS Corey Seeger (.306/.394/.521, 16 hr, 57 RBI), 2B Tree Turner ( .328/.375/.536, 28 hr, 77 RBI, 107 runs, 32 SB), 3b Justin Turner (.278/.361/.471, 27 hr, 87 RBI), c Will Smith (.258/. 365/.495, 25 hr, 76 rbi), CF Gavin Lux (.242/.328/.364, 7 hr, 46 rbi), LF AJ Pollock (.297/.355/.536, 21 hr, 69 rbi) ) ), 1b Kodi Bellinger (.165/.240/.302, 10 hrs, 36 rbi)

The Braves lost their best player of the season, Ronald Acuna Jr., when he tore an ACL in his right knee in early July. They had already lost Marcel Ozuna to a hand injury in May, then were placed on administrative leave to investigate a domestic violence incident. GM Alex Anthopoulos rebuilt the outfield at the trade deadline, taking over Jock Pedersen, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall and Jorge Soler (who remains in the COVID protocol as the NLCS begins). But it has been the best infield in baseball that has taken offense. Freddie Freeman, Ozzy Albiz, Dansby Swanson and Austin Riley scored 121 home runs with 2020 MVP Freeman (El Modena High), Albiz and Riley all worthy of MVP consideration this season. Even with the loss of Akuna and Ozuna, the Braves were as powerful as any offense behind the Giants and Dodgers in the National League.

In their post-season six games, the Dodgers have learned one thing for sure about their lineup — it just isn’t the same without Max Munsey (out with an injured elbow). He was closed twice by the Giants in the NLDS, but he showed up well enough to win that series. Edge: Even

starting pitchers

Brave: LH Max Fried (14-7, 3.04 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.6 KS per 9 IP), RH Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.5 KS per 9 IP), RH Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.7 Ks per 9 IP), RH Huascar Ynoa (4-6, 4.05 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.9 Ks per 9 IP) or LH Drew Smiley (11-4, 4.48 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.3 Ks) ) per 9 IP)

Dodgers: RH Max Scherzer (15-4, 2.46 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 11.8 Ks per 9 IP), RH Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 9.2 Ks per 9 IP), LH Julio Ureas (20-3, 2.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 9.5 Ks per 9 IP), RH Tony Gonsolin (4-1, 3.23 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 10.5 Ks per 9 IP)

When these two teams met in the NLCS a year ago, the Braves’ initial pitching was breached on them. Rookies Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright and Bryce Wilson started the game against the Dodgers. Only Anderson will make the sequel. Wright spent most of 2021 at Triple-A, while Wilson was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Two veterans – Max Fried and Charlie Morton – are the Braves’ best hopes to get a major pitching performance. Fried, a former Harvard-Westlake star, will debut the series. He led the Major with a 1.74 ERA after the All-Star break, going 8–2 with 13 quality runs in 14 outings, then he scored nine strikeouts in Atlanta’s Game 2 win against Milwaukee in the NLDS. With six shutout innings. Morton has become an outstanding postseason performer with a 2.52 ERA in his last eight appearances—including three World Series outings against the Dodgers (two in 2017 with the Houston Astros, one last year with Tampa Bay). Beyond those three, however, the Braves could resort to a “bullpen game” at least once.

Brave isn’t alone in being unable to match the Dodgers’ opening trio of Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler and Julio Ureas. Those three give the Dodgers a leg up in any postseason series — even if Game 1 starter Shazers is starting the opener two days after the “Party Tonight, Figure It Tomorrow” pledge in San Francisco. Edge: Dodgers

Read Also:  What's next for Angels Justin Upton after the rollercoaster 2021 season?

bullpen

Brave: LH Will Smith (3-7, 3.44 ERA, 37 saves, 6 blown saves, 1.13 WHIP, 11.5 KS per 9 IP), RH Jesse Chavez (3-2, 2.14 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.8 KS per 9 IP) , LH Tyler Matzek (0-4, 2.57 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 11.0 Ks per 9 IP), RH Luke Jackson (2-2, 1.98 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9.9 Ks per 9 IP), LH AJ Minter (3-6 , 3.78 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.8 Ks per 9 IP), RH Chris Martin (2-4, 3.95 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6.9 Ks per 9 IP), LH Dylan Lee (0-0, 9.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 13.5 Ks per 9 IP), RH Jacob Webb (5-4, 4.19 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 8.7 Ks per 9 IP), RH Richard Rodriguez (5-4, 2.94 ERA, 14 saves, 3 blow saves, 0.93 WHIP, 5.9 Ks per 9) IP)

Dodgers: RH Kenley Jansen (4-4, 2.22 ERA, 38 save, 5 blow save, 1.04 WHIP, 11.2 Ks per 9 IP), RH Blake Trainen (6-5, 7 save, 1.99 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 10.6 Ks per 9 IP) ) ), RH Corey Nebel (4-0, 2.45 ERA, 3 saves, 0.97 WHIP, 10.5 KS per 9 IP), RH Brusadar Greatrol (3-0, 4.59 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 7.3 KS per 9 IP), RH Joe Kelly (2-0, 2.86 ERA, 2 saves, 0.98 WHIP, 10.2 Ks per 9 IP), LH Alex Vesia (3-1, 2.25 ERA, 1 save, 0.98, 12.2 Ks per 9 IP), RH Phil Bickford ( 4- 2, 2.81 ERA, 1 save, 1.07 WHIP, 10.3 Ks per 9 IP), LH David Price (5-2, 4.03 ERA, 1 save, 1.43 WHIP, 7.1 Ks per 9 IP)

The Braves bullpen were an impromptu group for most of the season but it has come together of late. During their four-game NLDS win over the Brewers, the quintet of Jesse Chavez, AJ Minter, Luke Jackson, Tyler Matzek (Capistrano Valley High) and close Will Smith scored a 13-2/3 scoreless innings with 17 strikeouts and only nine hits. combined for. Gave permission. He closed the Brewers in the two middle games.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ bullpen has given manager Dave Roberts more options than last post-season. From throwing Brusader Greaterol to 102.5 mph (as he did in Game 4) to otherworldly things from Blake Trainen and Kenley Jensen (pitching as well as in a postseason since 2017), the Dodgers were late. The games present serious problems for opposing teams. Counting Corey Nebel’s “opening” act and Scherzer’s one-inning save (but not counting the Uriah’s mid-game start), the Dodgers reliever scored 22 innings in the wild-card game and five-game NLDS, making Three runs (1.23 ERA) were allowed. On 12 hits and two walks while hitting 26. Edge: Dodgers

bench

Brave: IF Orlando Archaea (.214/.282/.343, 2 hr, 13 rbi), IF-OFF Eddie Rosario (.259/.305/.435, 14 hr, 62 rbi), Heredia OR Pache, IF-OFF Ehir Adrienza (.247/.327/.401, 5 hr, 28 rbi), C William Contreras (.215/.303/.399, 8 hr, 23 rbi), of George Soler (.223/.316/.432) , 27 HR, 70 RBI)

Dodgers: IF-OFF Chris Taylor (.254/.344/.438, 20 hr, 73 rbi, 13 sb), c Austin Barnes (.215/.299/.345, 6 hr), 1b Albert Pujols (.236/. 284/.433, 17 hr, 50 rbi), 1b Matt BT (.270/.363/.402, 7 hr, 40 rbi), 1b-off Billy McKinney (.192/.280/.358, 9 hr, 27 RBI), Steven Souza Jr. K (.152/.222/.333, 1 HR, 3 RBI)

There is a chance that Solr may withdraw from the COVID protocol at some point during the NLCS. If he does so, the bench of the brave becomes strong. But the only real threat among the group is Pedersen, who can be positioned as a pinch-hitter when he doesn’t start against Dodgers Lefty (Urius). Albert Pujols will likely get a start against Fried or Smiley (if he starts a game), and Chris Taylor will likely find himself in the starting lineup several times with AJ Pollock on the bench. Edge: Dodgers

managers

Brave: Brian Snitker, sixth season (441–390, .531), fourth post-season (14–11, .560)

Dodgers: Dave Roberts, sixth season (542–330, .622), sixth post-season (39–27, .591)

With a long career in the minor leagues behind him, Snitkar was an unlikely old-school pick as the Brave manager. But he has had a winning touch. The Braves have won four consecutive NL East titles under his leadership. Only seven managers have led their team to four or more consecutive first places (division or league) – including Bobby Cox with the Braves and … Roberts with the Dodgers.

In contrast, Roberts is a new-age manager. Some of his assets are obscured by the front office’s heavy hand in daily decision-making – including openness to the ideas offered by the front office and the ability to sell its players on those ideas. Edge: Dodgers

series prediction

If the Braves were still in the NL West (as they were from 1969 to 1993, defying geography), they would have finished 18 games behind the Dodgers and 19 games behind the Giants. But 88 wins were enough to take the title in the NL East, where only one other team had the winning record (82–80 Phillies). Like the Dodgers’ wild-card rival, the St. Louis Cardinals, the Braves saved their best for last, leading 36–18 after August 1 and then eliminating the Brewers in four games in their NLDS. The Dodgers, however, aren’t the weak-hitting Brewers, and may have already survived what was the toughest challenge they faced this post-season. Pick: Dodgers at Six

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