Similarly, the market is paying attention to what the outcome will be. next treasury tender Locally, which has been having some difficulties with lending in recent times. The Ministry of Economy will present this Wednesday a menu of bills and national treasury bonds totaling $160,000 million and $375 million. And, beyond what happens with the FED’s monetary policy, the outcome achieved in this process will be a variable that will, without a doubt, determine the direction the dollar moves.
“Today the market operated normally official dollar He conducts himself very quietly, always within the plan imposed by the government bcraand there is no tension”, describes Gustavo Quintana from PR Operadores de Cambio. This reflects a scenario in which, thanks Soybean Dollar II, dollars are entering the reserves of the Central Bank (BCRA) and this generates a better exchange environment. Since the launch of the programme, the financial regulator has already pocketed around $800 million, easing the pressure on the dollar.
That and expected improvement in expectations about the course of inflation, which would make the monetary policy rate truly positive month-on-month, are the variables that combine for money market Keep calm these days.
Fed’s rate policy: this is how it will affect the dollar
And now a new factor appears: the politics of Rates in the United States, As explained to Ambito by economist Federico Glustein, “If increase rate What is expected in the market, which predicts an adjustment of 0.5%, this will be positive for Argentina in terms of exchange because the course dollar strength and the risk of capital outflows from the country towards United States Treasury instruments will be reduced”.
Similarly, it assumes that it will be positive for loan terms developing countriesWhich would also generate a better position in this regard for Argentina and Glustin assures that this is good because it goes against the greater position dollar shortage“A factor that will put pressure on exchange rates and affect prices currency us,
Along the same lines, economist Pablo Ferrari says there has been a strong increase in Rate of interestis smaller than irrigated will strengthen Dollar This will spur a trend of “flight to quality” behavior among investors against the rest of the currencies, who tend toward US assets as yields improve. “This type of process ends up devaluing coins emerging countries and this event will also be expressed in Argentina”, he explained.
Thus, the result of such a cycle would be devaluation of the peso against the dollar, which will change the local exchange situation. However, the prospect of a more accommodative change in the United States rate in light of improved inflation data suggests that these negative effects exchange rate Will reduce in the last phase of the year.
and Ferrari explains that, “If Argentina can continue its growth Reservationas you are under Soybean Dollar IIThere will be some margin to mitigate any negative impact on the exchange rate”.
With these figures on the table, Quintana estimates that in the coming days, he does not expect any significant changes in the dollar market. “Teaofficial exchange rate It is hyper-regulated and hence, nothing new can be expected and in the rest of the markets we will see what happens with the demand for the peso in the latter part of the year: some reaction can be seen, by FED after the announcement, but I don’t see much happening between now and the end of the year”, assesses the exchange operator.
Treasury Debt Placement: Another Key Factor for the Dollar
In the recent past, BCRA has implemented a very aggressive rate policy. “one tax bowl 75%, with a TEA of 107%, supports the exchange rate”, says Glustein. But he warns that debt tenders are becoming more complex and this is causing many investors to turn to instruments in pesos rather than dollarization. start thinking about.
“Due to the difficulty in collecting loans and the decline in bonds bcra More pesos will have to be issued, which will certainly affect blue prices”, predicts the economist. This will make the rate less effective as a dam for parallel markets. The bigger problem is that we still have One economy indexing To this is added the higher issuance of the peso as a result of the higher soybean dollar, which also puts pressure on the economy’s prices.
If this is combined with the BCRA’s higher need for Treasury support due to lack of financing in the local market, which will force it to issue more peso, it will put more pressure on various alternative exchange rates. This is one path the economy tries to avoid at all costs and to that end it is trying at all costs to generate new sources of tax revenue, such as the implementation of the soybean dollar (which results in more reserves and more revenue). is), the Agreement with the United States of America to compel the declaration of taxable goods and assets in foreign countries, among other declarations. And it is that Minister Sergio Massa knows that the more pesos the more inflation and, of course, fuel for the exchange market.