In the short term, Castro stressed, “the second half of this year and the beginning of the next” will turn into a global recession, due to the combination of the “perfect storm” and “high inflation with high interest rates” across all of the world order. setting central banks”, as well as the existence of “record energy prices in the world”.
“The price of Russian gas in Europe has risen by more than 700% in the past year. According to Deutsche Bank estimates, or Credit Suisse at the latest in the first three months of 2023, the continent’s two main manufacturing countries, Germany and Italy, will certainly plunge into a deep recession in the second half of 2022.
Similarly, he pointed out that the United States is already in an unaffordable position “in the first six months of this year,” as its product has fallen for two quarters in a row.
Along the same lines, Miguel Kiguel, economist and executive director of the consultancy firm EconViews, pointed out that “the world is entering low growth” with “a trend toward recession according to the purchasing managers’ indices in Europe and the United States”, and that , unlike 2008, do not respond to the “financial crisis”.
“The liquidity (of central banks) was not to give money to banks but to give money to many people and then, what people do is spend it and when that happens there is inflation,” he explained.
However, Latin America faces this scenario with a different situation and with opportunities for the future.
“The sector is growing more than originally expected this year, unlike the United States and China,” recalled Kiguel, who stressed that it attributed the rise to inflation, unlike central banks in Europe and the United States. “First response”. It is believed that “they run from behind”
He estimated that, if they are successful in their measures, the main central banks “probably manage to reduce inflation to 4%, but it is doubtful that they will reach (past) 2%”.
For Castro, the situation could give Latin America “its role in world politics”, with Mercosur already becoming “the world’s main protein production platform in the 21st century”.
“In Argentina, the exceptional export potential of agri-food and natural resources, especially energy and minerals, should be enhanced,” the analyst assessed.