Rio de Janeiro. – then candidate in the 2018 election Jair Bolsonaro The highest turnout occurred in two rounds – in four of Brazil’s five main electoral districts: So Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul. Only Bahia voted for the Workers’ Party (PT) candidate. , Fernando Haddad. Four years later, polls show that the head of state is surpassed only by the former president. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva The difference between the two in So Paulo and Rio in Rio Grande do Sul is relatively small (may be a technical tie for some), but led by Lula. In Minas Gerais, the former president has a gain of more than 10%, and in PT’s stronghold Bahia, everything indicates he will win by a landslide.
Viewed by regions, Electoral map of Brazil shows Lula widely in the northeastwhere the intention to vote is more than 60%; A Virtual Draw in the Southeast (Rio, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais) and A Bolsonarism That Takes Strong Steps to the South, in the states of Answer, the two main candidates for the Brazilian election are quite balanced, Bolsonaro is very strong in areas such as Roraima on the border with Venezuela, where he outnumbers Lula by about 40%; And the former president is on top of Maranho, also with a gain of more than 40%.
The strongest fight between the two candidates is in the Southeast, where both concentrated their acts and travels. Both originated in Minas Gerais, a state in which it is often said that whoever wins in that region gets elected president. Bolsonaro was attacked during the 2018 election campaign. This is not a mathematical issue, but a tradition that has been fulfilled in the last elections. Minas is a type of small Brazil, very close to the great states of Rio, So Paulo and Bahia. This leads to a conservative electorate who chose Bolsonaro in 2018. Today, the state is a reflection of the high level of Bolsonarism that exists in the country, with more than 50% according to recent surveys.
Nationally, the latest Datafolha poll puts Lula with 50% of the valid vote and Bolsonaro with 36%, which would be enough for the former president to win the first round.
Political consultant Leonardo Barreto, director of Vector, explains: “Rio de Janeiro, So Paulo and the states of Minas are the swing states of Brazil, that is, States that can reverse elections, Until recently, it was said that if Bolsonaro achieved a ten-point lead in the southeast and a five-point lead in the northeast, he would likely have re-election. The president focused his campaign on the Southeast, but, according to most polls, he was unable to close the gap with Lula.
So Paulo is the main electoral district of Brazil with 34 million voters; Minas Gerais ranked second with 16 million; Rio de Janeiro third with 12 million; Bahia is in fourth place with 11 million and finally, Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná are practically fifth with 8.5 million and 8.4 million respectively.
In previous elections, Bolsonaro prevailed in the southeast, but Haddad, who assumed the candidacy for Lula’s prison, had an outstanding performance in the northeastern states.
Brazilian analysts generally say that If the election in So Paulo is tied, it is open-ended, “It is also interesting to see that Lula’s advantage in Minas is not only huge, it has also raised hopes in Bolsonaro,” explained Barreto.
But in recent times the atmosphere of presidential campaign has changed. they see long faces and There is a predominant feeling that everything that has been done in recent months (social assistance programmes, inflation control and fuel cuts) has not been reached. Bolsonaro’s takeoff to promote what could be a threat to Lula’s comfortable lead. The southeast leans towards the former president, though not by much, and this complicates the plans for the head of state.
How do you explain Lula’s favor in the states of the Northeast and its advantage in the big cities of the Southeast of Brazil? Basically by vote of the weakest areas, who earn up to two monthly minimum wages. Among those voters, the former president is seen by many as a leader of the poor. Among those who require less from the state and its delivery policies, Bolsonaro manages to penetrate better.
As analyzed by Mario Braga from Control Risk Consultancy, “This is an election where the economy weighs heavily and there is a relationship between income and votes., This is why Lula has a wide advantage among the poorest people, who represent 38% to 50% of the electorate.
The situation is different in So Paulo, where the average voter profile is more conservative, stronger antisemitism predominates, and a more comfortable economic situation. In northern states such as Roraima, Bolsonaro favors issues related to values and customs, the use of weapons, and exploration activities, which in many cases damage the environment.
Given the financial market concentrated in So Paulo, and to a much lesser extent, Rio de Janeiro, the president continues to have greater support, although a recent survey by consulting firm BGC Liquidez showed that 80% of those interviewed said that they believed that Lula would be the winner. The same poll showed that in the event of the former president winning the first round, the So Paulo stock exchange could fall by about 3% next Monday without any major volatility.
Other candidates in the election will likely be important in the second round. All polls show that Lula will win without too much effort, but talks between the two candidates are expected and one of the biggest unknowns is to know what Ciro Gomes of the PDT (Workers Democratic Party) will do. Support was lost in the days of In his own kingdom—Cira, of which he was governor—the mayor who had always been loyal to him began to flee for Lula’s campaign. A fight between Ciro – who has around 7% voting intentions – and Lula could have prevented the former president from winning in the first round, despite strong pressure from the PDT candidate to drop out of the race at the last minute. It’s an absolutely unimaginable prospect for Ciro, who has deep grudges against PT and Lula, in particular, for the failure of talks to create a joint presidential ticket in 2018.