Friday, December 02, 2022

Elections in Brazil: Why 58 Elections in Argentina Were Wrong and Only One Right

Elections in Brazil: Why 58 Elections in Argentina Were Wrong and Only One Right

In addition to the surprising, adjusted result, which will lead to voting on October 30 Presidential election in Brazil Another powerful title left: the Voters’ gross mistake, For the Argentine reader, nothing new: what happened in our country in 2019 happened in a neighboring country.

With a few specifics and exceptions, the common denominator was slightly overrated it will perform Lula You underestimate to from bolsonaro, It even looked like the former president was heading for a potential victory in the first round.

Part Of The Report That Compiled Forecasts Of Pollutants In Brazil And Accessed By Clarins.

Part of the report that compiled forecasts of pollutants in Brazil and accessed by Clarins.

For him, The PT candidate required 50% of the votes. it was 48.37%, Not yet, but insufficient. Perhaps most shocking was the current president’s percentage: he added 43.35% and was just 5.12 points behind his rival.

Perhaps seeing the disturbance or as a way of self-protection, an Argentine consultant compiled forecasts that appeared in Brazilian media. Clarins agreed to that document. This is a two page PDF 59 measurementsbetween May and the end of September. Wholesale, since last two months.

Lists work estimates 17 different consultants/firms, And only one got it right:

responsible for a survey “mass caller”At the end of September, with barely 1,000 telephone cases, which Predicted 49.10% for Lula and 46.20% for Bolsonaro, Interestingly, the same firm had outperformed the current chairman by 5.5 points: 43% to 37.5% in the previous survey in September.

Many Polls Also Underestimated Lula'S Support.  He Believes He May Have Heavily Interviewed The Bottom Echelons Who Supported The Former President.  Afp Photo

Many polls also underestimated Lula’s support. He believes he may have heavily interviewed the bottom echelons who supported the former president. afp photo

Conversely, on the balance sheet Worst was “Brassmarket”, Between August and September—according to a document accessed by Clarins, and which allows links to consultancy polls—it published three studies that gave Bolsonaro the winner. The latter, about 17 points: 43.3% to 27.6%. More than an error, it sounds like an operation.

other people consultant/firm who gave birth to the current president “6 Saina”, “Future/ModalMice”, with “Brassmarket” They should be at the bottom of the table. For a poll, the biggest mistake is the winner being wrong. Bolsonaro rose 37.5% to 28.2% in “6 Signa”; and “Future…”, 49.5% to 46.3%,

Separate paragraph for “GERP Institute”, which in early August (the only survey to appear in the report) predicted a tie at 38%,

Who gave the most to Lula and who hit Argentina

refering to Lula’s Prediction of VictoryLassi more exposed Son “Data Folha Institute” and “IPEC”, The first began in May with a forecast that gave the former president a 22-point advantage: 48% to 26%. and he published his last poll with a slight margin, but with First round win count: 50% to 36%.

In the case of “IPEC”, made six measurements between mid-August and late September. Beginners beat Lula by 12 points: 44% to 32%. the latter, as in the case of “Data Sheet Institute”Predicted Wins without a ballot: 51% to 37%,

In between, there were the rest of the advisors, who gave the leader of the PT the winner with between 10 and 15 average points. That is, whatever happened in Argentina, something similar happened. They guessed the winner (in our case, Fernandez), but they missed the margin.

in Brazil and Argentina

A curiosity is that one of these firms is “in the middle” The one who made the best predictions of the first round of 2019 in Argentina, It’s consulting firm Atlas Intel, which predicted a nearly 10 point win for Frente de Todos in October 2019 and ended in 8.

The same firm released a table at these hours that places it with the least difference in percentage, although its final numbers gave Lula a first round win: 50.3% to 41.1%.

Report Presented By The Consulting Firm Atlas And Which Places It As The Least Error In Percentage.  Although It Was One Of Them That Predicted Lula'S Victory In The First Round.

Report presented by the consulting firm Atlas and which places it as the least error in percentage. Although it was one of them that predicted Lula’s victory in the first round.

bugle He spoke to one of his analysts, who tried to find an explanation for the Brazilian pollsters’ mistake. In almost perfect Spanish, he said:

“In our final analysis, we ended up with the best result nationally and out of the 9 we measured, we got 6 right. In any case, it seems to me that the polls in general fared poorly, with In A major underestimation of Bolsonaro and Lula’s inflation,

“I understand there is three main reasons, First, very poor calibration of respondents based on income. Surveys conducted by Data Folha and other institutions increased the share of the earning population to 2,400 reais (about two minimum wages). This area accounted for 57% of their sample, and official statistics say that the area covers no more than 35%. And it’s the most Lulista group of all”.

“The second reason, I think, is shame vote, Especially in face-to-face or telephone measurement. In our case, being online/web, there wasn’t that much. For example, in one consultancy, they found that men surveyed by women intended to vote for Bolsonaro 10 points more than men interviewed by women.”

“And the third point, I think, was a hello strategic vote, On the day of the vote, many voters of third-party candidates such as Simone Tebate and Ciro Gomes wanted to help either Lula or Bolsonaro. And Bolsonaro topped the vote gathering here, as many polls said Lula might win in the first round and there was a very strong component for these voters to go with Bolsonaro.

See also

See also

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