Facing a week that will be decisive, the loss of three deputies will leave the left-wing faction with no choice
The Balearic Islands are seen to the right. A week before the election, a week that could be decisive, the PP and Vox votes will add up to the 30 seats that make up a majority in parliament. The Left would lose the government and neither the CS nor the PI would enter the legislature, although the latter would remain at the gates of parliament with 4.1% of the vote. Those are the big headlines of a survey conducted by the Balearic Institute of Social Studies (IBES) for Ultima Hora, leaving no room for doubt: the right can reign in the community if PP and Vox agree.
Two factors come together for this result to occur: the first is that PSIB and Podemos are moving backwards across the islands. The Socialists lose two representatives, one in Mallorca and one in Évisa, while Podemos loses one in Menorca. This circumstance would leave the entire Left Bloc with insufficient 29 deputies to maintain an autonomous government.
The second factor that will strengthen political turmoil in the islands is the rise of the PP and Vox thanks to a regrouping of right-wing votes. The CS would disappear and its current five representatives would be split between the two right-wing parties. The party led by Patricia Guasp has no chance of entering parliament on any of the three islands. In Mallorca he will remain with 3% of the vote.
PI, the other centre-right party, is at risk of being or not being in this remaining week of the campaign. The survey gives him 4.1% of the vote, which would leave him at the door of parliament as electoral law establishes that at least 5% of the vote is needed to gain representation.
By parties, the PP is the one that would benefit most from the old CS vote. Marga Prohense regains the leadership and the ‘Popular’ manage to become the party with the most votes in the Balearic Islands and grow significantly, going from 16 to 23 representatives. He would win four in Mallorca, two deputies in Menorca and one deputy in Évisa. The result on this island is spectacular and he has received over 46% of the vote in the poll.
The other side of the coin is PSIB. It doesn’t fall, but it does fall and a shortfall of just two percentage points – it goes from 27.34% to 25.2% – will leave him no choice but to govern. The end result is that he will lose two representatives, one in Majorca and the other in Menorca; Its current 19 seats in parliament are reduced to 17 in these elections. After securing the first position in 2019, PSIB is once again at the second position.
Vox will be the party that improves the most in these elections. It could become the third highest polling force with 14.4% of the total votes. This improves outcomes across all islands, but is most stark in Mallorca. Jorge Campos’ list doubles the representation on the island and goes from 3 to 6 seats. In Évisa he wins a seat but is promoted in a PP push, while in Menorca he does not gain representation, although he is close.
Podemos, along with PSIB, is the other left-wing formation that will lose seats. It will go from six to five deputies, half of those it received in 2015, in the first elections. In Mallorca, it lowers the percentage, but maintains its three representatives; In Menorca he loses one and in Evissa he consolidates his seat. MESS, in both Mallorca and Menorca, is the only left-wing party that will not go under. It maintains four seats in Majorca and two in Menorca.
With regard to elections in the councils, Mallorca would also turn to the right: the PP and Vox would have a total of 17 councillors, an absolute majority, 11 for the PP and 6 for Vox. The PSIB would lose one and be left without options for the Left government. Vox would double the result; MES and Podemos would remain, while PI and CS would not gain representation.
The PP would win elections to the Council of Menorca, but its five councilors were insufficient to govern. PSIB could repeat the mandate with its four councilors from Més per Menorca and three councilors from Podemos. CS loses a councillor, which PP wins, and Vox will not enter.
In Ibiza, the ‘popular’ Vicente Mari will win an absolute majority and may rule alone with 7 seats. Vox will take over the minister that was in the hands of CS and Podemos loses a representative in the institution and remains with a minister. The PSIB maintains the current four ministers.
