Experts predict a slowdown in home sales with fewer transactions than last year for 2023, which “even without the credit system will not be like 2022”, in the words of Enrique Barbero, Director of Communication and Institution of Ibercaja, at the inauguration. in the conference ‘Prospect of the Real Estate Market 2023’, which was followed by more than 150 people.
“This year a drop in house sales of 10 or 15% is foreseen compared to the 660,000 that were sold last year in Spain,” predicted Julio Rodríguez, former president of the Mortgage Bank of Spain (BHE) and Caja Granada. “It remains to be seen what will happen with this economic crisis, but the slowdown will be more intense than expected,” he added, with economic growth this year of 1.5% (far from 5.5% in 2022), 1% in employment and a forecast unemployment rate of 12.9% to which he added “the most famous” rise in interest and high inflation.
“Certainly 2023 will not reach the level of 2022, with 3,000 houses of Aragon, the best sold of this century,” said Fernando Montón, general director of 14 Group Plaza. “In January and February we are at the same level as last year, but March looks worse and with the economic climate it is predicted that this year we will remain below the 6% sales growth that occurred in 2022. He also noted that 80% of the house sold is used and only 20 % to be new. The price is similar, added Jorge Aguerri, head of the Promoter’s Credit Risk Management Unit at Ibercaja Banco, who used an average price of 140,000 coins compared to 160,000 for a new one. With respect to the crisis at Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse, he admitted “prudence to be, but not to be feared, and mortgage financing is neither to be enforced nor to be eradicated”, while the current state of the bank’s debt “has nothing to do with it. when do with the previous financial crisis of 2008”. Manuel Salvador, professor of Statistical Methods at the University of Zaragoza and supporter of the four reports produced by Luis Fabra, director of the Chair in the Real Estate Forum, which celebrates its twentieth anniversary this year, agrees that “a lot is uncertain”. . #The president of BHE reported the problem of access to housing due to “the discrepancy between the level of rental and family income (there are four million with wages of 24,400 coins) and criticized the “ridiculous figure of 2.5″. e% of the means of social housing that exist in Spain compared to 9.8% in Europe”.