Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised long-term growth estimates for the United States and many other major economies because generative artificial intelligence can increase productivity in the next decade.
In the US, which Goldman considers the leader in the adoption market, AI will add 0.1 percentage point to gross domestic product growth in 2027 to speed up an increase of 0.4 percentage points in 2034. AI Impact Raises Goldman’s Forecast for US GDP to Expansion Rate 2% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2034, according to the projections.
It will take some time for companies to adopt AI, so that is likely The effect may not be seen for many years.said the Goldman team.
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“While great uncertainty remains about the timing and magnitude of AI’s effects, our basic estimate is that Generative AI affects productivity” over time, wrote Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius in a Sunday letter.
The eurozone will experience an increase of 0.1 percentage point from 2028, and the increase will rise to 0.3 percentage points in 2034, when Goldman predicted that the region would expand at a rate of 1.4%.
There are no changes
China will register a more moderate increase and reach 0.2 percentage point growth in 2034, increasing its rate of expansion to 3.2%. In this regard, Japan will experience growth of 0.3 percentage points in 2033, which will bring its GDP growth to 0.9%, as shown in Goldman’s projections.
“While our base case has a modest impact on global growth over the next decade, we emphasize thatThe risks around these estimates are substantial.” Written by Goldman economists.
The economic benefits of AI are linked to increased efficiency because it helps automate easier but time-consuming tasks, giving employees more time to do more productive work, say Goldman economists.
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According to the report, generative AI can automate around 25% of work tasks in major developed market economies, such as the US, and up to 20% of work in emerging markets.
The team noted that the AI This is far from a “paradigm shift” phenomenon. similar to the industrial revolution of the 19th century or the adoption of electricity in the early 20th.
“Structural breakdowns” like this lead to a long period of rapid increase in productivity, but this is very rare, as only three cases have been reported since the 16th century, according to Goldman’s analysis.