According to Martin Baccardax in The Street, strong payrolls and the easing of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike have prompted the Goldman Sachs Group to lower its short-term US recession forecast.
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said the bank sees a 15% chance of a US recession over the next 12 months, up from 20% previously, and hinted that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue with its 18-month cycle of interest rate hikes.
Hatzius also said that the impact of the long string of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, which took the central bank’s policy rate to its peak of 5.25% to 5.5% in 2007, will ease towards the end of the year “before disappearing completely in early 2024.”
“First, it looks like real disposable income will accelerate again in 2024 on continued strong job growth and rising real wages,” Hatzius said. “Second, we still disagree with the notion that an increasing burden of long and variable delays in monetary policy will push the economy into recession.”
The Labor Department reported on Friday that average hourly wages rose 4.3% last month, down from 4.4% in July but still broadly in line with core inflation readings and Wall Street forecasts. Street.
The wages data came alongside another strong but far from spectacular jobs report for August, which showed 187k new jobs were added last month, well above Wall Street’s consensus forecast of a 170k increase. The overall unemployment rate rose to 3.8%.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecasting tool, a real-time tracker of domestic growth, expects the US economy to grow at a rate of 5.6%. That’s a slightly slower pace than the 5.9% suggested late last month, but still well above the official figure. For the three months ended June, the Commerce Department recorded a 2.1% decline.
Last week, data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of US inflation rose slightly in August, while spendin rose faster than forecast as consumers continued to benefit from their firmer employment outlook.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.7% last month to a total of $696.4 billion as higher gasoline prices and momentum from Amazon’s Prime Day event underscored the continued strength of the domestic consumer, the Commerce Department reported Aug. 15.
The closely watched control group figure, which excludes autos, building materials, office supplies, gas station sales, and tobacco and is included in the government’s GDP calculations, rose 1%, well above analysts’ estimates of a 0.2% rise.
Goldman Sachs Gr opens lower at $327.40 for the week after the bank holiday on Monday. The 70-period moving average is above the last four candles, the RSI is down 44 points, and the MACD lines remain below the zero level.
We can pin support at $318.57 in the medium term. Meanwhile, the egg indicators are mixed.