Saturday, December 03, 2022

Hope the recession in America will be a passing thing

The panorama looks no less good for the end of the year and for the beginning of another. Not only in the Colombian economy, but globally, not only do you feel the air full of recession symptoms, they are now lived and experienced on a daily basis. The expected depression or general slowdown in economic activity has officially arrived in the United States, the global economic engine’s economy fell 0.1% in the second quarter of the year, meaning it entered a technical recession, the second consecutive quarter Contract.

The latest official count of United States economic growth, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, confirms the poor data, leading to an annual decline of 0.6%. Worldwide GDP trends are not the best, car sales continue to decline, unemployment is rising or stagnant in many markets and interest rates are not helping consumption to become an engine of growth again. And if you look at the construction, financial and remittance indicators, things don’t get any better.

Be it the recession caused or generated in the 2019 coronavirus, the indicators of production, unemployment and consumption are more important now to be able to compare the periods. Throughout 2021, the rear-view mirror was on the year in which Covid-19 hit head-on, 2020, but two years have passed since that deadly December 8, 2019, when a health crisis struck in the middle of the Chinese New Year. There was an explosion. Celebration. On a global scale that still claims victims and is ruthless by the behavior of the economy.

But it was in February of this year when, by pure Murphy’s Law, Russian forces advanced on Ukrainian land and instead of everything getting better, it only got worse: inflation soared, oil, gas and coal prices skyrocketed, And fully developed economies, which predicted the worst of the pandemic was over, just saw post-pandemic bonuses pushed back for a few more years. To think that the term “pre-pandemic”, as used in economic analysis, is feasible at the moment, is to disregard that what was perceived as an era change is the exact time of change.

Primary products once disenfranchised and exhibited by the green trend and the mass impacts posed by climate change such as coal, oil and gas have prolonged their suffering for a decade or two, perhaps in underdeveloped countries and emerging markets. In more. Forcing great summits of major countries like G-20, G-8 or Davos summit or multilateral banking meetings to take past agendas or bring them down to current value, but now with the awareness that any change in the energy matrix and should be arranged in an economic model. In general, recessions in developed countries tend to be longer and less frequent; This is sure to happen with the one declared in the United States, the engine of the world economy, the natural trading partner and main ally of Colombia, so local companies are going to feel a recession at the beginning of the new year, a situation that has to be overcome as it There is clearly a fleeting hope that central banks manage to reduce inflation and control price variation; This will be the first big step in turning the pages of recession.

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