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Wednesday, December 07, 2022

I think there is going to be a 6 to 9 month recession in the US at the beginning of 2023

Throughout this week we will learn very important data: on Friday we will have US unemployment data for September which may remain at 3.7%, we will also know the manufacturing and services PMI for September, the trade balance for August and gas reserves. At a time when Europe is facing substantial problems. Do you think Europe could be the solution through shipments of US gas?

It is important to note that Europe is still receiving gas from Russia despite the war and despite the fact that there are already blockages. Also, think long term: If the war continues, how much more will it affect gas prices? And if we have a bad winter in Europe, how will that affect the price hike? We have to be cautious, but at the same time, we must not forget that America has enough reserves. If there is a more severe and harsh winter, then we have enough reserves for that type of situation. In any case, in the long term it will affect all of us because, on the one hand, if we are giving gas to Europe, the prices go up and on the other, how much can we do it in the long run?

How is the situation on Wall Street now?

What’s happening is that the winners, both in terms of the investor and the company, are going out and wondering where they can get the most returns. You have to see where are the best opportunities to invest money, but it is complicated because there are some companies that are performing quite well in the stock markets, but at the same time, most companies have long run and problems. Will be The economy in general, and the stock market in particular, is moving much more slowly than ever before, and in these tough times it’s becoming more and more difficult to figure out how to get more money for your portfolio or company. Go.

Are there any sectors that you recommend investing in in this moment of financial instability?

Now we are seeing how bonds are going down in terms of prices but yields are rising, which is attractive, but not in the long term. If you want to earn money fast then this is an option. And also in energy and oil sector you can get more performance in the long term, because market and economy problems will continue for at least a year or two. We see we’re going to talk about a recession.

How do you see the situation in America? Are we in recession?

To talk about recession we have to go two quarters without growth and we still don’t have that. We were at a point in the first quarter and when we entered the second quarter we started the slowdown, but it went away. When will the recession start? Who knows… but I think in early 2023 we’re going to have a “slow down” in growth and performance, which is going to be very slow, we’re going to have a 6 to 9 month slowdown, but that Won’t be long. Its hardness will depend on the fed.

How high do you think the Fed will raise interest rates next year?

I believe that central banks will continue to fight inflation, interest rates will continue to rise because they believe that is how they are fighting inflation.

The war is hitting Europe especially hard…

I believe that war will affect all of us without any measure. The call-up of military stockpile by Russia and increase in armament is going to escalate the war with Ukraine and we may see another year of conflict, which will mean increase in problems in the short term.

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