Examining the existing literature, we find rigorous works that carefully analyze the relationship between corruption scandals and elections.
Various investigations have generally confirmed what common sense tells us: the bad behavior of politicians negatively affects their campaign strategies and re-election rates (Chang et al., 2010).
But not all literary findings suggest that voters react to the abuse of public office officials. Empirical evidence has found that corruption scandals can reach a point of saturation in some parts of society, where core voters can resist this type of behavior.
There are many examples. An article studying Spain’s real estate boom, and the resulting rise in financial scandals before the 2008 crisis, found that voters were willing to reward corruption if it was beneficial to them. . (Fernández-Vázquez et al., 2016).
Bringing this context to our lands: Who would have thought that a young activist who recently worked in the State and earns 800,000 pesos per month, could not choose his vote for Sergio Massa? Surely the imaginary example given in these lines can be inserted among the groups of “rebellious voters” in the acts of corruption. The same can be said of those organizations similar to the State that are now managing hundreds of millions of pesos per month for decades now, schemes on which millions of people depend. Can we reasonably assume that they will not vote for the candidate who guarantees them this continuity? Or the guild castes that run the unions for 30 or more years, where there is a tacit agreement – almost like the mafia – between the worker and the head of the union: the latter guarantees a decent salary in exchange for union continuity.union management model. What can be expected from the labor vote?
In most of the cases discussed, It is not ideological that motivates this type of voters to explain their vote. It is certain that if you had coffee alone with everyone involved in this fictitious story, the interviewees would say that they completely disagree with the policies implemented by the Government; but, after the cartoon, they will justify their actions by arguing that “we have no other way out.”
The word “continuity” prevails as a common element. These groups of people in question feel that any change seen in the near future threatens their privileges. (if it is a living wage). They feel stuck in a reality. And they are those who maintain 20%-25% of the unconditional vote for the Kirchnerist model which, in their beliefs, can guarantee them immunity within a broken society; with more than 40% poor and extreme inflation of 150% every year.
In short, we can summarize that comfort routes make many citizens part of the system they themselves despise. This is also corruption.
Governor Kicillof, his Chief of Staff Insaurralde, and Vice President Kirchner; all gathered for the same goal: to maintain power in Buenos Aires.
The case of Insaurralde
The rude party that all Argentines saw on television where the Chief of Staff of the Province of Buenos Aires, Martín Insaurralde, walked on a beautiful yacht with a well-known model in the clear waters of the Spanish Mediterranean, did not fail to call our attention to the caliber of the characters that govern us.
Y We mention the word rude because this scene, which can only be made possible by money linked to corruption, emerged in the middle of an election campaign in which more than 18 million Argentines are poor, and those did not have to endure the triple-digit inflation that It violated any purchasing capacity of an average salary.
Until a few weeks ago, the ruling party was shown to be the only one with the capacity and moral authority to lead the country’s transformation. What hypocrisy. It seems that some sectors of politics are laughing in our faces. There is no shame in anything and it is because of the impunity that the entrenched corruption is on top of the political power of power.
However, there is no guarantee, after this scandal, that the Minister of Economy, lawyer and presidential candidate for the ruling party, Sergio Massa, will lose his 30% of votes in the October 22 election. Cristina’s millions of dollars, which come from her hotels; the millions of the Báez family, from works not yet built; The bags of José López, with a millionaire return; the laundering done by the Rosadita financial company; the millions they found in the accounts of former secretary Ricardo Jaime; that of Julio de Vido, the millionaire private secretary of Néstor Kirchner, with large investments in the United States; and the Chocolate Rigau scandals, with over 40 debit cards withdrawing millions from Banco Provincia ATMs; These are just some of the examples of corruption that shocked the whole society recently. Now the former Chief of Staff of Buenos Aires and mayor of Lomas de Zamora has been added to the list of millionaires.
On Tuesday, the company CB Consulting Public Opinion presented a survey in the province of Buenos Aires that shows, in a word, the feeling created by the party of mayor Lomas de Zamora.
It is worth noting that those words with the greatest dimension are the ones that appear the most in the survey and, of course, the smallest is the least number of times among those asked. In short, this is how most residents of Buenos Aires feel when faced with the consultation: helplessness, anger, rejection, anger and shame.
After the facts, there are three more questions on the table.
– With what money you did it and the more than 200 confirmed trips abroad in recent times If in your sworn declaration of Personal Assets you declared that you have a small amount of 600,000 pesos as savings from your only job declared before the AFIP, which is the mayor, at least by the end of 2022.
– How is it possible that Governor Axel Kicillof claims not to know where his most important person in the Cabinet is, being out of the country for more than 15 days, in the middle of the election campaign and less than three weeks before the election, perhaps the most important of all for the ruling party.
– In the same line, how the most important references of Kirchnerism – Cristina and her son Máximo – do not know about the waste of expenses that Insaurralde has made in the recent years? with his trips to exotic countries, and they will push him to the top of political power in the province of Buenos Aires.
All that is unknown there will definitely be no answers before October 22. Now the order from our Minister of Economy is to “stay safe until the storm passes.” In short, what troubles the ruling party is not what will happen, but what is known to have happened.