US consumers’ near-term inflation expectations They fell in November to their lowest level since April 2021 according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York published on Monday.
Median inflation expectations for the coming year decreased for the second month to 3.4%, compared to 3.6% in October. Estimates of what inflation will be in the three- and five-year horizons remain unchanged at 3% and 2.7%, respectively.
The decline in consumers’ view of short-term inflation reflects several factors. the expected change in fuel prices decreased, and those of rent and college education fell to their lowest level since January 2021. Inflation opinions of those over 60 fell to a nearly three-year low.
Consumer opinion about the labor market worsened slightly. The median perceived likelihood of being out of a job in the next 12 months rose nearly one percentage point to 13.6%. The probability of finding a job after being unemployed decreased to a seven-month low of 55.2%.
Americans are also increasingly reluctant to act. The likelihood of changing primary residence in the next 12 months fell in November to the lowest level recorded in data dating back to mid-2013, the survey showed.
Glass half full
However, several household financial indicators improved during the month. Consumers said they were less likely to miss their minimum mortgage payment in the next three months, and respondents were more optimistic about their financial situation in the coming year.
The numbers barely reach a day before the publication of the US consumer price index a closely watched gauge of inflation, and the start of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting. Economists predict that the Consumer prices remained unchanged in November compared to the previous month, helped by the reduction in fuel costs.