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Friday, January 27, 2023

Inflation November 2022: How much will it be and what will push it up

National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) will announce inflation for November at 4:00 pm and economists expect it between 5.8 and 6.1%Which indicates it will be down from October’s 6.3%.

Experts’ estimates coincide with the latest survey of market expectations (REM) conducted by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), in which analysts calculate that inflation in November will 6,1%.

Read also: CABA inflation was 5.8% in November and has accumulated to 82.9% so far this year

They agreed that there would be a slowdown in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but economists advised Tamil Nadu He highlighted that the moderation is not exclusively due to the Fair Price Agreement that began to come into effect in mid-November.

since C&T Economic Advisor pointed out that November inflation will be above 6%, in line with a survey of retail prices conducted by the Advisor of Greater Buenos Aires (GBA), in which it registered an increase of 6.2%. “We are aiming for that number. There is some moderation because items that are not food were around 6%,” said the director. Maria Castiglioni.

In this episode, Mohd. Lorenzo Sigout – Director of Macroeconomic Analysis of the consulting firm Balance– Told that the consumer price index would be above 6%: “It can give between 6.1% and 6.2%”, he elaborated.

Private consultants forecast inflation to remain above 6% in November (Photo: NA/Marcelo Capes)

economist Gabriel Camano predicted a similar rise in prices because, according to his outlook, “the rate remained at 6% throughout the year” and he warned that it could “between 5.8 or 5.9%” And assured that this slowdown will have a negative impact on the month of December.

for his part, diego martinez burzacohead of research Send, It is also estimated that the monthly inflation is lower than that of October, which will be below 6% and explained that this is due to the “inertia effect of inflation in October, September and August”.

Martínez Burzaco attributed the decrease in price rise to “a decrease in primary expenditure in real terms, which contributes to The fewer pesos in the system and it starts to play positively against the expectation of inflation”.

“Accumulated inflation has also led to a decline in purchasing power which reduces demand and allows Some slowdown in inflation. Added.

Which sectors increased inflation in November?

While experts recognized a general increase in all items, the removal of tariff subsidies appeared as one of the main elements that pushed up the CPI for November.

For Camano, for example, “All items grow at a fairly similar rate And higher, there is always someone who is higher, but he looks for the culprit one month, while the next month he will be another ”.

Lorenzo Sigout told in Removal of subsidy for electricity and gas tariffs As one of the determining factors for inflation to be around 6%. This growth will be reflected in the housing category of the report published by INDEC.

Read also: Government signs an agreement with footwear companies to control prices for four months

Effect of fair value on inflation in November

Economy Minister Sergio Massa implemented a price stabilization program in mid-November. “good prices”, This is different from “Cautionary Pricing”, which sets prices for approximately 1900 products for 120 days.

Director of C&TMaria Castiglioni acknowledged that the price had stabilized, but pointed out that food items had also declined. is due to seasonal issues “Like in the case of vegetables or meat due to drought.”

In this sequence, Sigout said Food prices rose between 4 to 5% in November And this slowdown helped normalize headline inflation. In turn, this offset the impact of “fair value” in this decline.

Read also: Government adds a new price pact and frees up the cost of industrial inputs till March

“Most importantly, they cannot increase prices by more than 4%. Meat is also helping as wholesale prices have been falling for the third month in a row. Seasonal vegetables go down in November and this happened. The full impact of fair prices will be seen in December.”he explained.

Camano, for his part, assured that this type of freezing can have “short-term” effects and then “dissipate relatively quickly”. He also pointed out that the products “disappear from the gondola quickly and that When INDEC goes to measure it doesn’t find them, so it doesn’t affect the measurement”.

World Nation News Desk
World Nation News Deskhttps://worldnationnews.com/
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