Demand for Chinese pork imports increased due to supply shortfalls caused by ASF, with imports nearly quadrupling in 2020. Pig production around the world expanded production, moving products away from their home markets, and redirecting pork to other destinations. In 2021, with China recovering, imports fell 20% from the previous year’s record level. Major exporters looked for alternative markets, although most, with the notable exception of Brazil, were unable to reallocate such a large supply and trade declined.
In 2022, China’s pork imports are projected to drop by about 20% And slowing global trade, offset recovery in demand among other big importing countries as they recover from COVID-related disruptions. With growth in other markets not offsetting the decline in China, most major pork exporters will experience a decline for the second year in a row.
forecast that The European UnionChina’s main supplier of pork and the world’s largest exporter, its exports will drop 5% this year to less than 4.8 million tonnes. EU exporters expect some respite from lower demand from China United KingdomWhere imports are projected to grow by 7% in 2022. EU will also increase shipments Japan, South Korea and Australia, countries to which EU exports have declined in recent years as sales shifted to China. Competitive EU carcass prices and stronger demand than the US will drive higher shipments to these markets in 2022.
pork export America They are projected to decrease by 6% over the previous year. Chinese demand for US products was the first to be under pressure, as US shipments to this important market fell from the previous year in every month of 2021 due to US prices and tariffs. These factors are expected to persist into 2022, leading to a further decline in US market share. China partially offsets deficit, US pork demand expected to rise Mexico, Subsequently, it is expected that Colombia And this Dominican Republic Growth, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous year, as offset by higher prices.
export is expected Canada Slightly less in 2022, with a decline of 1% per year. Like the United States, Canada is also facing a similar situation in China. Currently, most Canadian pork production from China is suspended due to COVID cases reported at various plants; However, most cases occurred months ago and do not necessarily represent active outbreaks. lack of supply in America (Canada’s main export market) will help offset China’s decline.
Out of the four major exporters, Only Brazil increased total shipments in 2021 Thanks to strong production growth, competitive prices and the weakness of the Brazilian Real. even export China There was an increase year over year, as Brazil increased its share in that market to 16%. In 2022, Brazil’s total exports are expected to sustain, experiencing a modest growth of less than 1%. In China, Brazil is likely to take a bigger slice of the shrinking pie due to more competitive prices than other large exporters. Meanwhile, Brazil continues to do well Vietnam You Philippines and increasing demand in neighboring countries, Argentina You Uruguay,
April 8, 2022 / USDA / United States