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Monday, January 24, 2022

Mayo Clinic: Omicron cases likely to double

Rochester, Minn. – Strap In: Things are going to get worse before they get better.

That’s the short answer to what’s next for Minnesota in the coming weeks, given an expected peak in the unprecedented surge in COVID-19 omicron case numbers forecast by Mayo Clinic predictive modeling.

If past COVID-19 peaks resembled the foothills of a mountain range, the oncoming surge is expected to resemble a rocket ship heading straight up.

“It’s going to grow really fast, and there’s a really quick decline,” said Dr. Curtis Storley, a Mayo Clinic data scientist. “We are not talking about months of wearing masks. But for the next few weeks, it will become important to keep this peak down.”

Mayo Clinic’s modeling project is its digital crystal ball to identify emerging high-transmission hot spots across the country. The project estimates the rise and fall in the number of cases up to the county level.

Mayo Clinic predictive modeling suggests that an oncoming omicron wave could double the previous COVID-19 high water mark for new cases in Minnesota, then fall off a cliff by February. In the graph, IQR is the interquartile range, and CI is the confidence interval. (Contribution Graphic/Mayo Clinic COVID-19 Predictive Analytics Task Force)

“We’re probably halfway there,” said Storely. “From what we are seeing… the peak in cases could be anywhere from next week to the first week of February, with the estimate for January 24 being our case peak for the state.”

In early January, Minnesota was recording a seven-day average of 138 infections per 100,000 residents per day, representing the highest rate of the pandemic so far.

Storely says Minnesota is now on track to double its highest number of cases. Mid-way to Mayo it is estimated that cases of Omicron may peak at more than 300 cases per 100,000 residents. The low end of this range predicts at least 250 cases per 100,000 residents, while the high end shows more than 400 cases per 100,000 residents.

“We know that the omicron spreads much faster than the delta, and that’s why it’s growing much faster,” said Dr. Shannon Dunley of the Mayo Clinic COVID-19 Predictive Modeling Initiative. “Fortunately it produces somewhat mild disease, but the amount of matter is problematic.”

“Even if the risk is halved,” Dunley said, “if you have four times as many cases, there will still be an overall increase in hospitalizations.”

The Mayo Clinic warns that predictions are fluid and updated as new data arrives. But for additional perspective, Minnesota considers only 10 cases per 100,000 residents as the threshold for “high risk” prevalence.

fall like a stone

The good news: Storley sees a drop in case numbers after an impending peak, simply as a function of the virus depleting the supply of physical homes with nave immune systems. This is a U-turn pattern that has already been played in countries that have faced the Omicron variant before the US.

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“You run into a situation where in order for us to hang there, people have to be re-infected with Omicron, two weeks after they are infected,” Storley said. “Which overall is not biologically possible.”

“We’ll come back to 50, 40, 30, or 20 cases per 100,000 residents and after that, we’ll probably have a quiet period.”

a strong defense

Physicians insist that if this is an inevitable fate, the impending Omicron storm should be used as a window for Minnesotans to build their strongest defense against infection.

“We will not shy away from reaching these large numbers of cases,” Storley said. “What we have the power to do is to limit this to 300 cases per 100,000. The things we have control over will be encouraged if we are eligible, and to wear masks in crowded places.”

While boosters can’t always stop infection, Storli says, the data is clear that they reduce transmission.

“If we look at the mid-December deadline so far… in terms of preventing infection, booster vaccination is about three to four times more effective than without vaccination, and about two to three more times than a routine course of vaccination. is effective.”

“There’s still the option of getting your booster,” Dunley said. “There is still time. This will make you less likely to get infected, and if you do become infected, take a mild course and avoid hospitalization and worse outcomes.

There is also the effect that individual actions will have on others around them in order to dodge the oncoming boom.

“As a transplant cardiologist, I am particularly sensitive to this issue,” Dunley said. “Even if you’re not worried because you don’t have a medical condition, or you’re young and think that Omicron may not cause you serious illness, there are some who are older. are, or have chronic medical conditions, or who have been immunized because of a transplant, and can contract Omicron from you or someone else and become seriously ill. We are all in this together. “

World Nation News Deskhttps://www.worldnationnews.com
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