The president of Datanalisis, Luis Vicente León, stated this Friday afternoon that the presidential candidate of the democratic opposition, María Corina Machado, understands very well that it is not necessary to celebrate that the agreements signed in Barbados are at risk, because that means they may lose the possibility of presidential elections in 2024.
In a message to his account on
He explained that the “winning” strategy is to defend the agreements and continue the political struggle on the appropriate basis.
“I think María Corina Machado understands this better than other radical political actors. Her recent consideration and discretion on the issue of negotiations and licenses seems to show that she understands that the truth of the cause of a definitive isolation of the country in the United States, as punishment for his disqualification, the only thing that can guarantee is that the real possibilities of change “In Venezuela they are pulverized and with them their current leaders and parties, including the favorite, ” he wrote.
León reiterated that Machado and the democratic opposition have the right to continue fighting for him to be a presidential candidate, because his disqualification is unconstitutional. However, he warned that like the US. “You must understand that the previous route of punishments and isolation was a resounding failure in terms of bringing about that change and your current effort cannot go back to taking the wrong medicine that worsens the disease. .”
“The challenge is to continue the fight and find the right medicine, without falling into the same superficial trap that brought us here.”
A serious mistake
Luis Vicente León explained that it is a mistake to think that the worst that will happen if the agreements with Barbados fail is the elimination of oil licenses, and justifies that this will only have the effect of returning Maduro to his original sanctioned status, with which has learned to live for almost a decade, without major shocks and increasing the power of social control.
He emphasized that the issue is not so simple because among the agreed upon is the immigration issue of illegal Venezuelans in the United States. that there is a possibility of return, which is the basis of the American campaign and that Maduro can explode in a statement.
«There will also be the release of American prisoners in our country (which has not happened and may never happen) and there will be a future supply of oil to the West, amid the crisis in Ukraine, Israel-Palestine and the Chinese. tried to align with Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the Arab Emirates, and others. “It also means a drilling permit for the Dragon field to solve Trinidad’s gas supply problems (for Europe).”
He emphasized that there is also the concrete possibility of having a presidential election in 2024, which can be held under the official argument that the conditions for its implementation cannot be set.
“We are not talking here about the legality or constitutionality of that process, but about the real possibility of it happening. (And the more radical you are and the more you think that Maduro is a concentrator of power, the more likely it is to happen if you give that scenario.) All this leads us to change the original problem of licenses versus authorization (where many people are stuck in a simple way) for a different and more dangerous one: licenses against the election of the president, even the imperfect ones.
In this series of ideas, he regrets that some celebrate the deterioration of the negotiations between the parties, the threats of Juan González to withdraw the licenses from the US, or the threats of Jorge Rodríguez to break the confidentiality to commit to negotiation discussions and destroy with them any trace of trust between the parties.
“It is really a condemnation of any future negotiations; whoever celebrates it does not understand the seriousness of the risk, which is greater for the economy, the population, and the opposition itself than for a government in power, which does not care. this time a credible threat of continuity, which will keep you awake at night.
Es un error pensar que el conflicto entre los gob de USA y Vzla, alrededor de los acuerdos de Doha y Barbados, tiene como peor escenario la eliminación de las licencias petroleras, lo cual por cierto sólo tendría el efecto de regresar a Maduro a su condición original de…
— Luis Vicente Leon (@luisvicenteleon) November 17, 2023