Monday, March 4, 2024

Medium term: EC perspectives

Medium-Term Outlook Report

In the coming years, the resilience of EU farmers will continue to be tested due to climate change and market conditions, as well as changes in social needs, according to the report of medium-term outlook for agricultural markets. the European Commission, covering the period 2023-2035.

Accordingly, the agricultural sector is making changes to adapt to climate change and consumer preferences, focusing on reducing demand for meat and pork, sugar and wine. In addition, the report highlighted that energy and other input costs are expected to remain above pre-2021 levels in the medium term.

The document recognizes the central role of the Common Agricultural Policy and emphasizes its importance in supporting farmers in their transition towards a more sustainable production system, while becoming more stable and competitive. Regarding food security, the report states that the EU will continue to be a net exporter and contribute to global food security.

The report states that the EU will continue to be a net exporter and contribute to global food security

The document, published on the occasion of this year’s EU Agricultural Outlook Conference, examines production, consumption and trade in crops, dairy, meat, olive oil and wine, as well as income.

It considers the main factors expected to affect the future of agriculture in the EU until 2035, such as climate change, consumer demand and the evolving structure of the agricultural sector, and examines how these factors affect EU agriculture, the most likely future macroeconomic environment and assuming that the current policy framework remains unchanged.

Brussels explained that the growth of agricultural productivity will be conditioned by the pressures of climate change and the effects on the main natural resources, such as water and soil. This may reduce the rate of crop growth and may lead to a shift of agroclimatic zones towards the north, which will also affect cropping patterns.

Forecasts suggest that the EU will remain a net exporter and therefore contribute to global food security. This will be strengthened by the improvement of the productivity of the Member States that joined the EU after 2004 and their convergence with the old Member States, although a gap between them in this area is expected to continue.

The report points out that production costs could grow at a rate of 0.7% annually between 2025 and 2035.

Another key element for the future has to do with need for evolution. Consumers’ concerns about the effects of their food on the planet and their health are expected to contribute to a reduction in the consumption of meat (especially beef and pork), as well as sugar and wine, while the dairy products stabilize and some plant proteins, such as. as vegetables, grow.

According to income of farmers and ranchers, the report points out that production costs could grow at a rate of 0.7% per year between 2025 and 2035; However, the value of agricultural production will increase by 1.2% annually during that period, leading to an increase in the gross added value generated by agriculture and an increase in the income of farmers and ranchers in nominal terms. that term. However, if inflation is taken into account, income in real terms will be lower in 2035 than in the period 2021-23.

Full report (English only)

Medium Term: Ec Perspectives

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