According to a survey conducted with a method similar to that used by the National Regeneration Movement party (Morena) to define the candidacy for the governor of Puebla, the person who shows the greatest possibilities is Ignacio Mier Velazco.
This is the State Survey of Pre-Electoral Preferences and Political Positioning conducted by the company Bureau of Strategies and Analysis of Power, SC (BEAP), by Rodolfo Rivera Pacheco.
The exercise was carried out between October 14 and 20, 2023 through the application of 2,000 face-to-face interviews and a sample based on the universe of citizens of the state and the electoral section.
In general, the survey identifies that if the election for the governor is today, the party with the greatest preference is Morena with 63.1 percent.
ELECTION 2023
It is followed by the National Action Party (PAN) with 8.3 percent, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) with 4.3, and the rest of the political forces with a percentage of less than one percent.
In terms of alliances, MORENA-PT-PVEM obtained 63 percent of the preferences, against only 12.7 percent for PRI-PAN-PRD, while Movimiento Ciudadano will support only 2.2 percent.
STATE ELECTORAL PANORAMA SURVEY 2023
Afterward, he considered some questions similar to those Morena planned to apply in his survey.
That is, if you know or have heard of some of the seven candidates included in the exercise.
In this section, Ignacio Mier was recognized by 59.2 percent. Next to him is Alejandro Armenta with 53.8 and in third place, is Claudia Rivera Vivanco with 36.6.
STATE ELECTORAL PANORAMA SURVEY 2023
In fourth place is Julio Huerta with 25.8 percent; later Olivia Salomón, with only 11.7; Rodrigo Abdala continues with 6.4 and Lizeth Sánchez, with 3.8.
The second question is which of the candidates do you think can best represent the party as a candidate in the upcoming governorship election?
STATE ELECTORAL PANORAMA SURVEY 2023
Ignacio Mier is first again with 25.4 percent, in second place are those who do not know or did not answer who represent 22.3, while in third place is Alejandro Armenta with 20.3.
In the following percentages, 11.5 percent of respondents said no; 7.6 percent answered Claudia Rivera; 6.1, that Julio Huerta; 3.3, Olivia Solomon; 1.8, Rodrigo Abdala and Lizeth Sánchez had 1.5.
In the third section, participants were asked how well they knew the applicants, whether more or less depending on certain values ​​such as honesty.
In this case, Ignacio Mier is the one who generally has the highest scores with a 22.2 percent positive opinion, 28.2 for honesty, 28.9 for closeness to people, and 32.7 for his knowledge of the state.
He was also evaluated with 25.8 percent for keeping his word, 29.5 for considering him a good candidate, 28.7 for the willingness to vote for him, and 25.4 for liking Morena’s candidate.
These eight sections give a final score and according to the calculation of the survey, Ignacio Mier will be given 7.5 percent.
In the same evaluation, he is followed by Alejandro Armenta, who for the same values ​​reaches 2.5.
ELECTION 2024
It was on October 13 when Morena announced who the seven candidates will participate in the final survey and it is expected that on October 30 they will announce the results.
As announced by the participants and the party itself, a survey will be applied to 1,200 people and two more mirror surveys will be conducted by companies.
