The dollar and euro woke up this Friday with a new record sales figure in the informal market in Cuba, confirming that the currencies show no sign of stopping their rise.
The average sale in dollars reaches 298 pesos per unit and is dangerously close to 300 CUP, as revealed by the daily rate of independent media outlet ElToque, which records the oscillations in the informal price of the country’s currencies.
In the case of the euro, the European currency crossed the threshold of 300 and stands at 302, increasing two pesos compared to the previous day.
The gap between the dollar and the euro is only five pesos.
The freely convertible currency (MLC) remains unchanged, currently anchored at 260 CUP.
What is the ceiling on the informal price of currencies in Cuba?
In a recent analysis of ElToque Regarding the movement of currencies in the informal market, he pointed out that the coup de grace of the Cuban peso is the announcement of the beginning of 2024 of increases in fuel prices and public transportation rates.
Although the measures did not take place due to a computer failure in the FINCIMEX marketing system, the fact is that the announcement had an immediate effect on the foreign exchange market.
“The anticipation of the implementation of the measures caused an increase in the demand for foreign currencies, which, due to the limited supply available, led to a rapid decline of the Cuban peso.
It added a “context of high uncertainty and economic instability, without specific government plans, which leads to the continuation of conditions that drive the demand for foreign currency and the rest of the limited supply.”
Pavel Vidal, a Cuban economist and principal researcher at OMFi, assures that since the end of December 2023, an increase in demand for currencies that exceeds supply has been observed in data monitored by classifieds websites.
“There is an increase in volatility in the informal foreign exchange market, which reflects uncertainty regarding new regulations and policies for tariffs, taxes, prices, and MSMEs,” he explained.
However, the economist warns that in virtual spaces that monitor, the demand from buyers who are willing to buy the currency at the current price began to fall, something that may slow the rise in the price of reference currencies.
“The above may lead to a slowdown in the depreciation of the peso if it exceeds the 300 mark, an event targeted in the central scenario of the OMFi forecast models for February,” he concluded.
Meanwhile, on the street, many agree that the rise in the price of currencies in the informal market is ultimately not good for anyone because inflation seems to have no limit.
Will currencies continue to rise?
The median of the values registered in the last 24 hours marked the purchase offers for the euro at 300 CUP and sold for 305 pesos which can be expected to rise in the next few hours.
The dollar, for its part, registered an average of 296 pesos to buy and 300 pesos to sell, another sign of an imminent rise in value.
In the case of MLC, the median is 260 for acquisitions and purchases.
The new record sales figures in the informal euro and dollar markets took place amid a critical economic context, marked by the dismissal of Alejandro Gil as minister of economy.
Earlier, the government also announced a delay in the increase in fuel prices after the alleged cyberattack on the CIMEX marketing system. These decisions are preceded, in turn, by the announcement that the government is preparing to intervene in the informal foreign exchange market in February.
Despite a temporary reduction in its purchase and sale values at the end of December 2023, In a period of just a few days, the three currencies not only recovered their previous values but also continued a continuous increase in record prices. a matter of great concern for those who do not have access to these currencies on the island.
The reference rate of the aforementioned independent media was prepared after analyzing the purchase and sale of advertisements in three reference currencies published on social networks and classified websites. From this result, a price is established that is used to determine the values of the main currencies circulating in the country.
However, elToque explains that its representative rate is formed from buy or sell announcements, that is, that they are not concrete operations but rather express the desire of the actors who participated in that market. So they insist that the numbers shared will only be a “reference.”