10 best games to bet
Eagles in Jets
1 p.m., Eagles 6, 45
Hank’s Honey: There’s nothing wild about choosing either side here. Jalen Hurts, who played the most dumbbell game ever at MetLife (with coach Nick Siriani calling the play) last week, is hurting in an ankle and may not be mobile. The question is how this will affect the Eagles’ top-ranked running game, of which the Hearts play a big part. After all, the Jets are ranked fifth worst by run. That’s also a lot of points to give the Eagles on the road, but the Jets, who are trying to beat the Eagles for the first time in their history (0-11), have yet to put together two good attempts. The Eagles defense has put three of its last five opponents under 14 points and certainly has the ability to fend off the Jets’ shilling attack. It curves south under the turnpike.
If I were a betting man: Eagles and Under.
giants in dolphins
1 p.m., Dolphins 3 p.m., 40
Hank’s Honey: under. under. under. That’s the first thing. The Giants’ offense might not get worse if Mike Glennon steps in for Daniel Jones, but it ain’t going to get better. The Giants offense, after Jason Garrett, spawned a lot like the Giants offense under Jason Garrett and is a complex Miami D that can make turnovers from the blitz, regardless of who plays the QB. We don’t fully trust the Dolphins, but they have been the more consistent of the two teams with a four-game winning streak. Tua Tagovailoa seems to be improving with each game and RB Philippe Lindsay came in gift-wrapped at a discount to quickly upgrade the run game and blitz pickups.
If I were a betting man: Dolphins and down.
FALCONS. in BUCS
1 p.m., Books until 11 p.m., 50
Hank’s Honey: The Bux eventually got an ATS victory on the road at Indy, but it took a bunch of poor turnovers to complete. That just seems like too many points for a divisional game. Although the teams are at different levels and the Books should win, it’s not a completely one-sided matchup. The Falcons are a mid-pack team with some talent. The Bucks have allowed an average of 32 points in their last three road games against New Orleans, Washington and Indianapolis. Matt Ryan is a capable quarterback who can take advantage of a slim Tampa Bay secondary while Cordrell Patterson delivers one of the league’s most unique double threats.
If I were a betting man: Falcon and Under.
Jaguar in RAMS
4:05 pm, Ram 13, 48
Hank’s Honey: After three straight losses against the Titans, 49ers and Packers, the Rams may be back in the softer part of their schedule against a poor team traveling coast-to-coast. The Jaguars’ offense is downright bad and the defense of Rams, who is achieving little, can vent their frustrations and turn it into a debacle. Trevor Lawrence has not developed under Urban Mayer, partly due to a lack of receiver talent. Now, with Dan Arnold on the IR, it’s even thinner. It looks like Matthew Stafford is playing with an injury and will have to get better. Getting some small area against the Jags’ shell defense would help.
If I were a betting man: Ram and below.
Chargers in Bengal
1 pm, Bengal 3 pm, 50
Hank’s Honey: It’s pretty clear now that the Chargers can’t stop the run and it’s going to be problematic against resurgent Joe Mixon, who ended up running on the Steelers 28 times for 165 yards. If Bolt focuses on stopping him (as Mike Tomlin said the Steelers were), Joe Burrows and the Jammer chase become even more dangerous. Bengal are out of their bye week and can see a clear path to the NFC North title. With four SU defeats in their last six games, the Chargers have been inconsistent at best, mediocre at worst.
If I were a betting man: Bengal and over.
TEXANS. in Colts
1 p.m., Colts 9 p.m., 45
Hank’s Honey: There is no need to think much on this. This is a huge spread and it should be higher. How are the Texans (allowed to run 31st) going to stop Jonathan Taylor from running through them after failing to stop Jonathan Taylor in his first 31-3 loss (14-145-2 TD)? They don’t blitz, don’t put much pressure on the QB and with Taylor gone, Carson Wentz should be able to avoid his usual mistakes. Houston didn’t have Tyrod Taylor in their first meeting, but he hasn’t done much for offense in the three games since his return. The Colts are 4-1 ATS on the road and beat the spread by an average of 11.6 points.
If I were a betting man: Colts and Under.
SEAHAWKS. in 49ers
4:25 p.m., Niners until 3 p.m., 45
Hank’s Honey: The line is so low, it spreads like a sucker. But how can the Seahawks and their blatant offense (9.3ppg since the return of Russell Wilson) play with a team with none in the league based in Massachusetts? The Seahawks don’t have a tremendous advantage in the home field (2-3 this season) and their defense is the second most yards allowed in the NFL. The absence of Deebo Samuel (LB Fred Warner also sits) could slow the Niners down, but his offense doesn’t need to score that many points to win it easily. We’ll take the bait and dare Pete Carroll’s team to prove us wrong.
If I were a betting man: 49ers and under.
Raiders in Washington
4:05 PM, Raiders 2 1/2, 49
Hank’s Honey: Funny how the WFT defense has been outperforming since Chase Young went down, completely shutting down the other team’s ongoing play. This has helped him cover three straight games as an underdog and face a Raiders team that is only 1-4 ATS and just 2-4 ATS at home. The Vegas defense has allowed at least 31 points in each of the last three games and while we don’t see that type of explosion from Burgundy and Gold, we see them controlling the pace of the game. Taylor Heinicke is starting to feel it, Antonio Gibson is doing well and Terry McLaurin continues as the NFL’s least-heralded WR.
If I were a betting man: Washington and Under.
Patriots in the Bills
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Billed by 3 p.m., 44
Hank’s Honey: The line is an insult to a Patriots team playing the best, most consistent, football in an otherwise inconsistent league. This also includes those bills which have been fully yoyo recently. We’ve seen it from dynastic Patriots teams before. They are at their best at the end of the season. He has allowed a total of 26 points in his last four games and is displaying a balanced offense with a perfect fit with rookie QB Mack Jones. If they can drive the ball the way the Colts did against the Bills two weeks ago, it won’t be close. On the other hand, the crime of buffalo is rather one dimensional. The race they get is from Josh Allen. But that doesn’t work against a Bill Belichick defense and Allen has thrown seven INTs in his last four games, so he’ll have a lot of work to do.
If I were a betting man: Patriots and Under.
BRONCOS at CHIEFS
8:20 p.m., 10 by the Chiefs, 47
Hank’s Honey: Historically, this is a no-brainer, given the Broncos’ recent futility against Casey with Andy Reid’s impressive record following a bye and 11 consecutive losses since 2015. However, when the Chiefs started to turn things around before the bye, it was the defense that did the turning point. Here’s a very good Broncos don’t do it against a D, so there’s no way they’re going to cover double digits. It is more likely that the Broncos slow down the pace of the game by running football, something they have done very well throughout the year. It also makes the under look very attractive.
If I were a betting man: Broncos and Under.
look but don’t touch
Ravens in Steelers
4:25 p.m., Ravens 3:30 p.m., 44
Hank’s Honey: Mike Tomlin is trying to get his team into a respectable position this week by putting them in the pads and turning off the music of the locker room. If it’s going to work out any week it will be against the Ravens for what is the Steelers’ last stand. The Ravens definitely have flaws, starting with their aggressive backfield. But even when the Ravens are underperforming, they’re still winning for the most part and, while we know what we’re getting from Ben Roethlisberger, we don’t know what we’ll get after his poor performance against Lamar Jackson. Used to be. Brown. Will this continue or will things click like they did this time last season?
If I were a betting man: Steelers and Under.
the best of the rest
CARDINALS IN BEARS
1 p.m. Cardinals 7:30 p.m. 45
If I were a betting man: Cardinals and Under.
Vikings in Lions
1 p.m., Vikings until 7 p.m., 46
If I were a betting man: Lion and over.
Best bet of the week: Niners. Hot team on cold team.
Last week: 9-6
in totality: 90-88 -2
over under: 97-83
Best bets: 8-4