MIAMI, Florida – Tropical Storm Nicole, which formed as a subtropical storm in Atlantic waters on Monday, continues to strengthen on Tuesday and is very close to becoming a hurricane as it moves northeast of the Bahamas. The system will reach eastern Florida on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
According to a Tuesday 10 p.m. ET bulletin from the National Hurricane Center, the system was 150 miles east-northeast of Great Abaco Island and 325 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida.
The cyclone had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, and was moving to the west at 10 mph.
Part of southern Florida remains in the track cone of the system, although the storm will pass over the Bahamas and begin to climb before reaching the state.
Notice and Surveillance Force
The storm surge watch extends west from the Okloconee River to Indian Pass in Florida.
storm warning
- Abacos, Berry, Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands in the Northwest Bahamas
- Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida
tropical storm warning
- Andros Islands, New Providence and Eleuthera in the Northwest Bahamas
- Hollandael Beach, Florida to Boca Raton, Florida
- Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida for Altamaha Sound, Georgia
- lago okichobi
storm surge warning
- In North Palm Beach, N. Florida, A. Altamaha Sound, Georgia
- St. John’s River Mouth in Georgetown, Florida
storm watch
- Hollandael Beach to Boca Raton, Florida
- lago okichobi
- Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach
storm surge watch
- Sur de North Palm Beach in A. Altamaha Sound, Georgia
- St. John’s River Mouth in Georgetown, Florida
tropical storm watch
- Ocean Reef south of Hollandael Beach, north of Florida
- North of Bonita Beach to the Okloconee River, Florida
- North of Altamaha Sound in Georgia, south of the Sentee River in South Carolina
Future forecast for Hurricane Nicole
A west-northwestward motion toward the west is forecast to begin Wednesday afternoon, followed by a turn toward the northwest during Thursday and Thursday night.
Passing near or over those islands on Wednesday, Nicole’s eye will move toward the northwestern Bahamas tonight. It will reach the east coast of Florida in a hurricane warning area on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
On Thursday night, Nicole’s eye is expected to move into central and northern Florida and southern Georgia on Thursday night.
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A Hurricane in Florida in November, Something Unusual
November is the last month of hurricane season, and tropical activity generally begins to subside. However, the 2022 hurricane season was pushed back and this year almost all dominant hurricanes in the Atlantic formed after August.
Florida has been hit nine times by tropical systems in November in the past 170 years, about a 5% chance in any given year.
Of those nine, seven were from the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. That makes this week’s developing system, should it consolidate and hit Florida, very rare.
For now, the forecast suggests that the frequency and intensity of rain will increase as we approach the middle of the week. It will become increasingly windy with dangerous ocean conditions and a high risk of rip currents.
Winds and waves coupled with a full moon and rising sea levels will be made worse by climate change to produce significant coastal flooding, according to an analysis by meteorologist John Morales. Communities such as Fort Lauderdale, Miami Beach, Miami Shores, and neighborhoods near Biscayne Boulevard such as Edgewater, Coconut Grove, Coral Gables and the Florida Keys should be prepared for flooding.
Flooding continues in Volusia County. In the Deltona area, residents also complain that they haven’t come to collect much debris.
