The Pac-12 men’s basketball teams are unlikely to reach the goal of winning 75 percent of their non-conference games, and they may not come close.
The current win rate stands at 66 percent with just one week left before league play ramps up.
Arizona, UCLA and USC are 26–1 with the only loss against Gonzaga.
Everyone else is 48-37 with a plethora of unfair losses in tow.
There are two chances left for the Pac-12 to score a marquee non-conference win: Colorado hosts No. 7 Kansas today, and Arizona visits No. 19 Tennessee on Wednesday.
The Wildcats are essentially a locksmith to the NCAA Tournament, but the Buffaloes aren’t—they’re not even on the bubble at this point.
A win over the Jayhawks would do wonders for CU’s resume and, by extension, serve to bolster the league’s super soft middle.
This is not the most important game of the non-conference season for the Pac-12. But this shot list is how the last six weeks have turned out for the public.
For power rating…
(Net Ranking: The nCAA IEvaluation TeaThe ool ranking is used by the selection committee to determine the seed and large bids.)
1. UCLA (8-1/2-0)
Last week: 1
result: Versus Alcorn State and North Carolina: Canceled
next: vs. Cal Poly (Wednesday, canceled)
Net Ranking: 23 (Changes from last week: -1)
2. Arizona (11-0/1-0)
Last week: 2
result: 101-76 to Northern Colorado and 84-60 to Cal Baptist. defeated by
next: in Tennessee (Wednesday)
Net Ranking: 1 (change: +2)
Comment: There was a stretch years ago, when Arizona always lost the last game before the Christmas break. This team feels different in many ways.
3. USC (12-0/2-0)
Last week: 3
result: beat UC Irvine 66-61 and Georgia Tech 67-53
next: vs. State of Oklahoma (Tuesday, canceled)
Net Ranking: 12 (change: +2)
Comment: We don’t have any details on the COVID break (duration, number of players involved, etc) announced on Sunday, but we can count. If today happens to be the third day, anyone who needs a 10-day separation can return on December 29, the day before ASU arrives.
4. Colorado (9-3/1-1)
Last week: 4
result: beat Cal State-Bakersfield 60-46
next: vs. Kansas (Tuesday)
Net Ranking: 110 (Change: +10)
Comment: What has been the best recruiting class in the school’s history in its first season? Solid, not spectacular. The true revelatory sophistication guard in Boulder has been Keshavan Barthelemy.
5. Washington State (8-4/1-1)
Last week: 5
result: Lost to New Mexico State 64-61, beat Northern Colorado 82-56
next: vs. Boise State (Wednesday)
Net Ranking: 49 (change: -6)
Comment: In three of his four losses, Cougar has shot 30 percent or less from 3-point range. Given their reliance on long-range shooting, the 3-point percentage and winning percentage will continue to run in lockstep.
6. Utah (7-4/1-1)
Last week: 6
result: Missouri 83-75 . I lost
next: vs. Fresno State (Tuesday)
Net Ranking: 85 (change: -22)
Comment: The loss at Mizzou was worse than you might think: The Tigers rank 240th between Penn and Southern Illinois-Edwardsville in the net rankings.
7. Stanford (6-4/1-1)
Last week: 7
result: beat Dartmouth 89-78, lost to Texas 60-53
next: vs. Wyoming (Wednesday)
Net Ranking: 127 (change: +25)
Comment: The mighty Dartmouth Big Green came into the Bay Area for a few days, taking Stanford to overtime and losing six to Cal. This is the same Big Green who hasn’t won a game since November 28.
8. Arizona State (5-7/1-1)
Last week: 8
result: Creighton won 58–57, lost to USF 66–65
next: vs. Florida A&M (Tuesday)
Net Ranking: 132 (Change: +47)
Comment: Five points or less have been decided on each of the last four matches. We expect this trend to continue after the conference play ramps up.
9. Oregon (6-6/0-2)
Last week: 9
result: Beat Portland 96-71, Baylor 78-70. lost to
next: Versus Pepperdine (Tuesday)
Net Ranking: 97 (change: +26)
Comment: The duck’s strength schedule is keeping them afloat in the metrics. They don’t have any bad disadvantages (unless you count Arizona State and Stanford).
10. Cal (7-5/1-1)
Last week: 10
result: 61-55 to Dartmouth. defeated by
next: Vs Prashant (Wednesday)
Net Ranking: 136 (change: -8)
Comment: The Bears are beating the teams they’re about to beat, thanks to big man Andre Kelly, who is playing at an all-conference level.
11. Washington (5-4/0-1)
Last week: 1 1
result: beat Seattle 64-56
next: vs. Utah Valley (Tuesday)
Net Ranking: 208 (change: +14)
Comment: Having lost three games to COVID, the Huskies are guaranteed to enter conference play with a record worse than .500. Utah Valley is the last game outside the league.
12. Oregon State (1-10/0-2)
Last week: 12
result: Lost to UC Davis 71-64 and Texas A&M 83-73
next: State vs. Nicholas State (Tuesday)
Net Ranking: 278 (change: -15)
Comment: Take out three games in the Pac-12 Tournament and four in the NCAA, and the Beavers are 15-22 since the start of last season. It’s better than what we thought before seeing it.