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Wednesday, October 5, 2022

Pennsylvania Governor’s Race 2022 Poll: Too Close to Call? – crowdwisdom360

Pennsylvania Governor’s Race 2022 Poll: Josh Shapiro Will Be Dem Nominee, GOP Field Open

Pennsylvania’s 2022 gubernatorial election to be held on November 8th, 2022. The seat is open after two-time Democratic Governor Tom Wolf stepped down. His lieutenant governor, Fetterman, is running for Senate, which leaves Attorney General Josh Shapiro as the sole Dame nominee. He has played the role for 5 years, winning by 4.6 points in 2020 despite Biden winning by only 1.2. He was the most successful Democrat to run state-wide and expects to continue his good electoral performance and win the governor’s mansion in 2022.

The 2018 race was not competitive as Wolf won by 17 points, just 2 years after Clinton lost the state. The state legislature has a Republican majority in both the House and Senate.

Most forecasters rate this race as a “toss-up”, including the RCP, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report. Pennsylvania will once again face several competitive races, including the Senate, where both primaries remain competitive with the general election. Read our preview of that race here.

Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Race 2022 Poll: Candidates in Primary

The two primaries are a land of contrasts: the Republican side has a multitude of candidates while the Democratic side has only one candidate. Here are the candidates running in the primary:

Republican Primary

Lou Barletta, former US Representative for Pennsylvania

Republican nominee for 11th Congressional District (2011-2019) and US Senate in 2018

Guy Ciarocchi, CEO of the Chester County Chamber of Business and Industry and former Chief of Staff to Lieutenant Governor Jim Cawley (2011–2014)

Charlie Gero, conservative activist and vice president of the American Conservative Union

Melissa Hart, former U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania’s Fourth Congressional District (2001–2007)

Scott Martin, State Senator for the 13th Senate

Doug Maastriano, state senator for the 33rd senatorial district (2019–present)

William McSwan, former U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania (2018–2021)

Jake Corman, President Pro Temporal of the Pennsylvania State Senate and State Senator for the 34th Senate District

John Ventrey, retired UPS security and public affairs executive and candidate for Westmoreland County Commissioner in 2019

Dave White, former Delaware County Council member

Joe Gale, member of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners (2016–present) and candidate for lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania in 2018

democratic primary

Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania Attorney General (2017–present), Montgomery County Commissioner (2012–2017), State Representative for the 153rd Legislative District (2005–2012)

Pennsylvania Governor Race 2022 Polls: Latest Primary election, January 10

There is no voting on the Democratic side as only one candidate is running. The GOP Primary Has Seen 2 Polls In The Last 6 Months Although One Was Completed Before Doug

Maastriano entered the race. He leads the latest poll that was conducted by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling agency, on November 9-10, 2021 with a sample of 648 potential primary voters.

Doug Mastriano: 18%
Lou Barletta: 14%
Jake Corman: 4%
Scott Martin: 3%
Undecided: 56%

There is no clear favorite here. Trump has not endorsed anyone quite like the PA Senate race, which has a huge following. undecided voters. As always, his support may narrow the field to ensure Republicans have time to focus on the general election. Shapiro has the advantage of cruises through his primary and can save all his money and attention on defeating the winner of this election.

Pennsylvania Governor’s Race 2022 Poll: Latest Support

1. Josh Shapiro

Bob Casey Jr., US Senator from Pennsylvania (2007–present), Treasurer of Pennsylvania (2005–2007), Auditor General of Pennsylvania (1997–2005)

Ed Rendell, Governor of Pennsylvania (2003–2011), President of the National Governors Association (2008–2009), Mayor of Philadelphia (1992–2000), District Attorney of Philadelphia (1978–1986)

Tom Wolf, Governor of Pennsylvania (2015–present), Revenue Secretary of Pennsylvania (2007–2008)

Matt Cartwright, U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District (2019–present), Co-Chair of the House Democratic Policy and Communications Committee (2019–present)

Current), US Representative from Pennsylvania’s 17th Congressional District (2013-2019)

Matt Cartwright, US Representative for the 8th Congressional District of Pennsylvania (2019–present), Co-Chair of the House Democratic Policy and Communications Committee (2019–present), US Representative from the 17th Congressional District of Pennsylvania (2013–2019)[10]

Madeleine Dean, US Representative from Pennsylvania’s 4th Congressional District (2019–present), Pennsylvania State Representative from 153rd District (2012–2018)[13]

Dwight Evans, US Representative from Pennsylvania’s 3rd Congressional District (2019–present), US Representative from Pennsylvania’s 2nd Congressional District (2016–2019), Pennsylvania State Representative from 203rd District (1981–2016)
Democratic Governors Association

Democratic Jewish Outreach PA

Planned Parenthood Action Fund

2. Lou Barletta

Steve Bannon, former White House Chief Strategist and Senior Adviser to the President (2017)

3. Jake Corman

Kellyanne Conway, former senior adviser to President Donald Trump (2017-2020)

4. Doug Mastriano

Michael Flynn, former US National Security Advisor (2017)

Jenna Ellis, Donald Trump’s Legal Adviser

Pennsylvania Governor Race 2022 Poll: Racial Demographics

According to the latest 2020 census data, the state’s population is as follows:
The large majority of the white vote remains, and this is the case in the primaries of both parties. Black voters remain an important voting bloc for Dems and they need to ensure that Philadelphia turnout is high. The 4 suburban “collar” counties around the city are also huge vote banks for Dems because they are far from Trump’s GOP.

Montgomery and Delaware counties are particularly important. Meanwhile Pittsburgh and its metro area have been a bright spot for Democrats while they lose votes in white working-class areas in northeast Pennsylvania (NEPA), such as Biden’s hometown of Scranton. South Central PA is an extremely vote-rich region and the counties of Cumbria, Northumberland and Lebanon will again be battlegrounds. That area along with rural counties remains a vote source for the GOP.

Demographics

Ratio

white american

73.5%

black american

10.5%

Hispanic American

8.1%

Asian American

3.9%

multi-racial

3.5%

other

0.5%

Pennsylvania Governor Race 2022 Poll: Google Search Update, January 10

a) Republican Primary

The Google Trends primary of the past 7 days and in general show a huge lead for Maastriano against Shapiro.

Republican Primary

Doug Mastriano: 70%
Lou Barletta: 13%
Jake Corman: 9%
Scott Martin: 9%

Image 103

General election

Doug Mastriano: 76%
Josh Shapiro: 24%

Image 104

Pennsylvania Governor’s Race 2022 Poll: Google Search Updates January 10

There has been no voting in this race as the Republican field remains volatile. When there are elections, they will be added here. All forecasters rate this race as a “toss-up,” so don’t be surprised if elections are so close and we get a clearer picture only after the primaries are complete and GOP voters choose their candidate.

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