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Friday, January 27, 2023

Recall results: what will happen on election night, and when

We might know on Tuesday night whether Governor Gavin Newsom will stay in his seat for at least another year, or whether he will choose someone to replace him. Again, it may take a day or even a few days to determine.

Either way, due to California’s new voting model, experts said that the preliminary results announced a few minutes after the end of the recall vote on September 14 may look good to Newsom. After that, as the results are updated to include more votes, the competition may become tense.

California voters have become accustomed to knowing the winners and losers of elections on election night or sometimes days later. Many recent elections are coming to an end, and voters are increasingly voting by mail-these two factors may delay the final result.

But the timeline for the final result may not apply to the recall. The vote on September 14 included only two questions, while there were dozens of questions in the November election. It is also expected that the recall rate will not be close to the record 80% of registered voters who participated in November, so officials will have a few million votes. Similarly, the timetable for counting ballots is more pressing. Election officials are now required to complete all eligible mail-in ballot forms (postmarked September 14 or earlier) within 7 days of election day, which is more than the 17-day window allowed Much shorter November.

If the recent polls are correct, the recall may not be particularly close.

The last public opinion poll conducted by the University of California, Berkeley, Government Research Institute on Friday showed that Newsom leads by 21.5 percentage points. This finding indicates that the anti-recall population has a greater victory, but in other respects it is similar to several other public opinions released in the past month. The investigation is consistent.

The question of “when do we know” will depend on the early results and how they are handled, says Paul Mitchell of the Sacramento-based Political Data Corporation, which is tracking returns across the state.

If 70% of the votes are counted on election night and one party is 15 points ahead, Mitchell said that the other party may not be able to catch up mathematically. But if the early vote counting is stricter, or the number of votes is small, the final result may not be known on election night.

In terms of early results, they are expected to support the governor. A new voting model emerged in California in 2020-after former President Donald Trump and other Republican leaders expressed doubts about mailed votes, the Democrats sent ballots by mail, partly because of coronavirus concerns, while the Republicans did. Vote in person-is expected to be recalled. This model may distort the preliminary results announced on election night and beyond.

The first batch of results will be announced shortly after the voting ends at 8 pm. They will be based solely on early mail-in ballots, which California election officials have been counting for most of the past month. Those early votes will almost certainly represent the Democratic Party disproportionately, and they overwhelmingly support keeping Newsom by their side.

But each of the 58 counties in California has its own model for publishing vote counts, which is then updated by the Secretary of State. Most counties will announce the results of the second round shortly after 9pm. These figures will include some votes cast on election day, when the recall competition may begin to tighten.

Ali Navid, the founder of California Talks, a Los Angeles research firm, said of the Democratic Party’s new model of early voting: “Using a football metaphor, the movement against removal has a huge lead.”

“The’support for the recall’ movement is trying to achieve a dramatic comeback in the fourth quarter.”

We have seen how the change in voting patterns occurred.

In 2018, in the 39th House District of Orange County, Democrat Gil Cisneros fell behind Republican Yang Kim by 3,900 votes on election night, leading to the early announcement that Kim became the first Korean-American in Congress female. But at the time, the early results still favored Republicans. In the next few days, as more live votes were listed and counted in the total, Cisneros took the lead. More than a week later, Cisneros was declared the winner and finally defeated Jin by 3.2 points. Republicans yelled for fouls, claiming it was the result of fraud without evidence.

But in 2020 the opposite happened. As the pandemic and political rhetoric changed voting patterns, Cisneros led by 9 percentage points early based on the mailed vote count announced on election night. But after voting in person, Jin finally won with 1.2 points. There were no allegations of fraud after this result.

It is expected that in the recall election, the change between the initial and final results will not be so drastic, because the Democratic Party accounts for a much larger proportion of California voters.

World Nation News Desk
World Nation News Deskhttps://worldnationnews.com/
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