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Wednesday, January 26, 2022

San Bernardino County records $475,000 – busiest since 2006

The pandemic pushed San Bernardino County’s average buying price to $475,000 in the busiest November since 2006.

Overall, Southern California homebuyers weren’t deterred by the six-county average selling price reaching its 14th record high of the pandemic era in November, according to DQNews. Mortgage rates a notch above record lows have mixed with an enduring, hearty appetite for larger living quarters to drive up prices – however, the appreciation rate seems to be cooling. And a possible recession in 2023 could slow buying momentum.

Regionally, 22,426 homes were sold, down 1.5% for the month but up 1.8% in a year. Average selling price of $693,500 – up 0.5% for the month recorded. In one year, the average has grown by 15.6 per cent. Compare that pace of appreciation to six months ago when prices were rising 25% annually.

As far as Riverside County is concerned, here are dozens of trends from my trusty spreadsheet Baker found in the DQNews report on closed transactions for November…

1. Sales: 3,166 existing and new homes sold – up 1% from October and up 6% from November 2020.

2. Context: You’d have to go back to 2006 to find any September with more sales. It was the eighth busiest November out of 34 since 1988. Last month was 34% higher than the 10-year average buying pace for November. Since 1988, a typical November has seen a 79% drop in one-month sales, compared with an average 8.3% decrease from October.

3. Last 12 Months? 37,666 San Bernardino County purchases — 21% over the past 12 months and 28% higher than the 10-year average.

4. Prices: The $475,000 average month across the country was up 2.2%, up 18.8% over the 12 months. Six months ago, profits went up 17% in a year. This breaks the $465,000 record set in August and October.

5. Reference: Over 10 years, price gains averaged 11.8% annually. The latest performance topped 85% of all 12-month periods since 1988.

6. Epidemic period? 10 price records have been broken since February 2020. An average $122,000 increase over these 21 months equates to a profit of $7.94 every hour.

Here’s a look at key parts of Riverside County’s market in November…

7. Existing Single Family Homes: 2,588 sold, up 7% in one year. Median of $455,000 – an increase of 18% over 12 months.

8. Existing Condos: 163 sales, down 4% in 12 months. Mean of $420,000 — an increase of 11% in one year.

9. Newly Made: Builders sold 415 new homes, up 2% in one year. Median of $570,250 – an increase of 12% over 12 months.

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10. Builder Share: 13.1% of sales versus 13.5% a year ago. County builders’ slice of the market ranks No. 2 among SoCal’s six counties.

And the bigger picture…

11. Rates: How cheap is money? Just before the pandemic hit, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rates averaged 3.01% in the three months ending November. 3.6% in February 2020. This translates to 8% more purchasing power for House Hunters.

At these rates, a buyer with a 20% drop would pay $1,605 per month on $475,000 average sales, up from $1,273 on February 2020’s $350,000 average. So during the pandemic, selling prices increased by 36%, but by just 26% for a theoretical home payment.

12. Supply: In the four counties, 24% fewer existing homes were officially available for purchase in the three months ending November than a year earlier, Realtor.com statistics show.

13. Affordability: The combination of higher prices and larger mortgage payments forced the Chapman University single-family affordability index to drop 11% since June.

Around Southern California…

in totality: Sales rose for the month in a trio of six of the region’s counties; A trio a year. Prices rose in four counties in the month; all in the year. Since May, the appreciation rate has shrunk in five of the six counties.

Los Angeles County: 7,234 sales, down 4% on the month; Up 7.7% in 12 months—busiest since 2006. mean? $788,000 after a 0.3% drop in November. 13% growth in one year. Six months ago, the profit went up 25% in a year.

Orange County: 3,181 sales, down 2.4% on the month; 3.5% less in a year. Median? $919,000 after a 0.1% drop in November. 15% growth in one year. Six months ago, profits went up 19% in a year.

Riverside County: 4,197 sales, up 2.4% on the month; Up 2.5% in 12 months—busiest since 2006. mean? A record $546,750 after a 2.2% gain in November. 20% growth in one year. Six months ago, profits went up 23% in a year.

San Diego County: 3,646 sales, down 3% on the month; Down 7% in one year. Median? Record $750,000 after November’s 1.4% gain. 15% growth in one year. Six months ago, profits went up 23% in a year.

Ventura County: 1,002 sales, up 2% on the month; Down 0.6% in a year. Median? Record $755,000 after November’s 4.1% gain. 15% growth in one year. Six months ago, profits went up 21% a year.

Jonathan Lancer is a business columnist for Southern California Newsgroup. He can be contacted at [email protected]

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