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Friday, January 27, 2023

Scarecrow in Civil War USA

America is scared. For months now, and especially now that the first anniversary of the attack on the Capitol has passed, warnings about growing political polarization have repeatedly raised questions or warnings about the possibility of a new civil war. Allusions proliferate at gatherings and interviews, in political speeches and in academic writings. And this month’s two books address this topic in depth, both under the thesis that war is imminent.

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In the political sphere, mention or suggestion about the possibility of a new armed conflict has ranged from scaremongering rhetoric to serious foreshadowing, through more or less suggestive use of historical context. The latter is the case for a quote from Joe Biden during his speech for the anniversary of the rebellion at the Capitol. After recalling how some rebels carried and waved the Confederate flag, “a symbol of the cause destroying America,” and adding that the flag had never been displayed in Congress, he added: “This Civil War Didn’t even happen during 2021. But it happened here in 2021.”

The Speaker of the House of Representatives was more direct when, in September, she drew an analogy between the occupation of the Capitol and the Civil War. “There have been difficulties in politics in the past, but nothing like what we are suffering now. We had a civil war but even then President Lincoln was building the dome of the Capitol, a symbol of democracy to the world… and now this symbol is under attack, not just in its physical structure but as an institution. Even in form.”

“The next war in the United States is already here and the country refuses to see it,” says Stephen Marche in his book

“Are we really facing another civil war?”, read headlines on Thursday new York Times Commentator Michelle Goldberg. Although his response was skeptical, the letter came from notices issued about it in the books how do civil wars start Political scientist and professor at the University of California, Barbara F. Walter, and Next civil war. Report from America’s Future by Canadian novelist Stephen Marche.


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Fernando Garcia

Walter and Marche share at least two of their starting points. One refers to the fact that in all recent armed conflicts civilians were caught by surprise when violence broke out no matter how many warning signs were visible. Marche presents these situations in this way: “The next American Civil War is already here and the country refuses to see it.” The second premise on which he and Walter agree is that an armed conflict would no longer be like a civil war, with soldiers on the front lines, but would be based on a guerrilla insurgency.

Half the country is afraid of it and the third justifies it

A poll by the Zogby Analytics Institute cited in Time magazine a few days ago warned nearly a year ago that 46% of Americans see a new civil war as “likely”, while 11% are “not sure” and 43% they are. Consider it “impossible”. In the age group between 18 and 29 years the index of those who assessed it as likely increased to 53%. Yet another shocking survey, Posted by on 2 Jan Washington Post, concluded that a third of the country’s citizens, 34%, believe that violence against the government can be justified. The fear of armed conflict is also present in the police and armed forces. In December 2020, on the eve of the attack on the Capitol, the FBI’s Minneapolis field office released a report that supporters of the far-right boogaloo movement advocated “armed, anti-government actions leading to civil war”. And three retired generals wrote in December that “there are signs of potential upheaval in our armed forces.” He pointed to his concern at the idea that “a coup will succeed next time”, in reference to the attack on the Capitol.

Polarization between more and more radical factions, the crisis of credibility of politicians and institutions, the abundance of weapons in the country (393 million pistols and rifles for 329 million inhabitants), the formation of militias with a vocation and planning of insurgency, and of course The attack on the Capitol to prevent a peaceful transfer of power is, to both authors, clear signs that a violent confrontation is imminent.

The idea that war is inevitable, says Fintan O’Toole, is “inflammable and corrosive”.

Other essayists focus on the need to prevent conflict, in the case of social psychologist Peter Coleman, a professor at Columbia University who specializes in conflict resolution. “How the United States Can Avoid Another Civil War” is the straightforward title of an article published January 6 in the journal Time , Working for peace and unity based on historical examples, agreeing to a ceasefire and focusing on what works are some of his recommendations.

Not all analysts who talk of civil war do so because they believe it might happen. Political scientist and Harvard professor Josh Kertzer wrote on Twitter on January 3, “I know many Civil War scholars and very few of them think the United States is on the brink of civil war.” others, such as the Felipe Bump Inn Washington Post Last Tuesday, underscoring the relevance of the debate itself: “There has been a widespread discussion in recent days about the possibility of civil war in America, it is revealing,” he wrote. And there is no shortage of those warning of the danger of the debate: “Beware of predictions of civil war”, warned polemicist Fintan O’Toole in the Atlantic , In December. Well, “It is one thing to accept the real possibility that America breaks down and does so violently, and another thing to state that possibility is inevitable.” Such an idea is “inflammable and corrosive”. And it’s scary.


World Nation News Desk
World Nation News Deskhttps://worldnationnews.com/
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