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Sunday, June 26, 2022

Senate final results: Labour, Greens and David Pocock win majority of senators

The latest buttons for the electronic distribution of preferences for the Senate were pressed in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia on Monday. I wrote about the distribution of preferences in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania on Saturday, as well as David Pocock’s Senate victory on Tuesday.



Read more: Other Senate results: Hanson wins easily, but Labor still on track for friendly Senate


All states have 12 senators, six of whom are nominated in elections to the semi-senate. The quota is one seventh of the votes, or 14.3%. State senators are elected to six-year terms beginning July 1, except for dual dissolutions.

Final primary votes in Western Australia: Labor quotas 2.42, Liberals 2.22, Greens 1.00, One Nation 0.24, cannabis legalization 0.24, Christians 0.15 and UAP 0.15. The result was three Labor, two Liberals and one Green, with Labor benefiting from the Liberals.

It was a decisive victory for Labour, because it means Labour, the Greens and Pocock will have 39 of the 76 senators, enough to pass legislation that the Coalition opposes.

The distribution of preferences shows that One Nation was well ahead of the third Liberal when the Liberals were excluded: 0.71 quotas for the third Labor candidate, Fatima Peyman, 0.61 for One Nation and 0.46 for the Liberals.

If liberal preferences heavily favored One Nation, Peyman would have lost, but the number of non-exhaustive liberals was roughly 50 to 50, and Peyman defeated One Nation with 0.85 to 0.75 quotas.

In Victoria, the final primary votes were Coalition quotas 2.26, Labor 2.20, Greens 0.97, UAP 0.28, cannabis legalization 0.21 and One Nation 0.20. Two coalitions were elected, two Labor and one Green, with the UAP’s Ralph Babet defeating the coalition’s Greg Mirabella for the last seat to win the coalition’s seat.

ABC Elections Analyst Anthony Green said that Babet led One Nation from a 0.44 quota to 0.40 when One Nation was eliminated and received over 50% of their preference. Had Mirabella passed Labor to third place, he might have benefited from Labor’s preferences.

But he was 0.50 behind Labour, at 0.55, while Babet was 0.64. Babet extended his Mirabella preference lead by winning from 0.83 for the quota to 0.69 for Labour.

The final primary votes in New South Wales were 2.57 Coalition quotas, 2.13 Labor quotas, 0.80 Greens, 0.29 One Nation quotas and 0.24 UAP quotas. Three coalitions were elected, two Labor and one Green. It was a victory for the Greens from Labour.

Analyst Kevin Bonham said the third Liberal, Jim Molan, defeated One Nation by 2.4%, compared to a 4.0% gap in the primary vote.

Overall results of the Senate

Result of this semi-Senate election: 15 coalitions out of 40 (down three, including defector gain), 15 Labor (steady), six Greens (three up), one One Nation (stable), one Jackie Lambie Network (JLN) (one more), one UAP (one more), and one Pocock (one more). A defector from the Coalition to NT and two Alliance Centers to SA (one defector) lost their seats.

In addition to the states listed above, the JLN received from the Liberals in Tasmania, the Greens received from the LNP in Queensland, the Liberals and the Greens received from the two Central Alliances in South Africa, David Pocock received from the Liberals in the ACT and the NT country. Liberals received from a defector.

The general Senate consists of 32 coalitions of 76, 26 Labour, 12 Greens, two One Nations, two JLNs, one UAP and one Pocock. As far as legislation the Coalition opposes, Labor will need the Greens and one of the six Others, most likely Pocock or the JLN.

This is the highest representation of the Greens in the Senate, reflecting their victories in every state in the last two Senate half elections.

The table below shows the results of these elections by state and country. ONP is one nation and others are UAP in Victoria and Pocock in ACT.

2022 Senate results.

The JLN won one seat with just 0.2% of the nationwide vote. They only contested Tasmania, which is by far the least populous Australian state, but all states have 12 senators.

There are many Other parties, but their voters usually don’t like each other, so they struggle to get seats. The Others on the Left prefer Labor and the Greens over the Others on the right, and the Others on the right prefer Coalition and One Nation.

Primary vote swings in the Senate differed from swings in the House of Representatives

Anthony Green has a table of the national Senate’s total votes. Coalition gained 34.2% (down 3.8% from 2019), Labor 30.1% (up 1.3%), Greens 12.7% (up 2.5%), One Nation 4, 3% (down 1.1%), PDA 3.5% (up 1.1%). and Legalization of cannabis 3.3% (up 1.5%).

House of Representatives won 35.7% votes for the coalition (down 5.7%), 32.6% Labor (down 0.8%), 12.2% Greens (up 1.8%), 5.0 % “One Nation” (growth by 1.9%), 4.1% UAP (growth by 0.7%). ) and 5.3% independent (growth by 1.9%).

The reason for the move to One Nation in the House of Representatives but the rejection in the Senate was that One Nation claimed 149 out of 151 seats in the House of Representatives, up from 59 in 2019. In the Senate, One Nation contested every state as they are in 2019. Thus, the Senate swing is the best indicator of One Nation’s overall support.

Since One Nation is a right-wing party, they have taken votes from the Coalition, fighting for almost every seat in the House of Representatives. The vote in the Labor House was defeated by the independent Turquoises, who were not factors in the Senate other than Pocock in the ACT.

Senators to come out in next semi-senate election

These are the senators who will stand for election if the next election is a normal half Senate election. These elections must be held by May 2025.

Senate Final Results: Labour, Greens And David Pocock Win Majority Of Senators
senators up.

Four ACT and NT senators have only three years, while state senators were elected in 2019. In each state except Tasmania, the Coalition will defend three seats. Another bad election for the Coalition will cost the Senate dearly.

The Greens will defend their seats in each state, and Pocock will defend his seat in the ACT Senate.

LNP easily keeps Kallid in Queensland by-election

In Saturday’s by-election, Kallida in Queensland, the LNP defeated Labor by a score of 71.4-28.6, up 5.6% from the LNP since the 2020 state election. Primary votes were won by 49.8% of the LNP (down 7.4%), 19.6% of Labor (down 6.1%), 14.4% of One Nation (previously non-participant) and 9.8% of Cutter’s Australian Party (growth by 1.4%). The Greens did not participate in the by-elections.

This by-election was prompted by the resignation of LNP member Colin Boyes to contest Flynn’s federal seat, which he won.

Macron’s coalition loses majority in French parliamentary elections

I covered Sunday’s French legislative elections for The Poll Bludger. President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble coalition has lost its majority and is likely to depend on the conservative alliance to pass legislation. Both the left and the far right have made great strides.

Also covered: Two Conservative-led UK by-elections this Thursday, and US President Joe Biden’s ratings are now worse than Donald Trump’s so far in both of their presidencies.

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