China is conducting the largest military exercise in its history off the coast of Taiwan, a country it considers part of its territory. The maneuvers Beijing launched in response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island include missile launches and incursions into Taiwanese airspace.
For decades, tensions between China and Taiwan have been rising so much that the prospect of an invasion by the mighty Chinese People’s Liberation Army is something few people deny. If China invaded Taiwan, it would free a asymmetric warfareThat is, a conflict in which one of the parties has a military force far superior to its opponent.
This is the type of war we are seeing between Russia and Ukraine, and it shows us that the imbalance of forces in the results on the ground is not always repeated.
China, which has 1.4 billion residents compared to Taiwan’s 24.5 million, has a defense budget 13 times more It is much more than its neighbour, which is even more so in terms of troops, equipment and weapons.
Aware of its losses in asymmetric warfare, Taiwan so-called “Porcupine StrategyWhen it senses danger, the porcupine flutters its pens to deter strong predators.
“The pain of stepping on an animal’s beak becomes the main obstacle to crushing it,” Taipei Times newspaper reported in an editorial. And, if the hunter still decides to attack the porcupine, will have to suffer a painful punishment And will give up in the end.
Taipei’s strategy is based on these assumptions, as confirmed in its 2021 Quadruple Defense Review.
In the face of an asymmetric war, Taiwan considers it a priority not to acquire expensive fighters and submarines, but to deploy Mobile and Concealed Defensive WeaponsSuch as anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles.
Zeno Leoni, an expert in international order, defense and China-West relations at King’s College London, analyzed the three layers that make up Taiwan’s porcupine strategy.
“The outer layer It is intelligence and reconnaissance to ensure that the defense forces are fully prepared,” he explained in a disclosure article on Taiwanese defense doctrine for The Conversation.
for decades, Taiwan is developing a sophisticated early warning system to avoid the surprise impact of a potential hit-and-run attack from China.
Thus, Beijing would have to “launch any offensive based on medium-range missiles and air strikes to dismantle Taiwan’s radar installations, landing strips and missile batteries.”
To respond to such an attack, middle layer According to the expert, Porcupine involves the deployment of naval forces for guerrilla warfare in the middle of the sea with the support of fighter jets supplied by the United States.
Small and agile boats equipped with missiles and helicopters and missile launchers from the ground will try to block the Chinese military fleet from reaching Taiwan’s territory. Or, if it does, it will pay a high price in human and material harm.
“Geography and population are its backbone” third layer Defensive,” explains Leoni. Formosa’s complex terrain, with rugged mountains, few beaches suitable for landing, and much of its area urbanized, would give defenders an advantage and could increase the casualties of invaders.
In addition, despite the fact that the mighty Chinese army is 12 times more in troops than Taiwan, it has More than 1.5 lakh reservoirs That if Chinese soldiers tried to invade the country, they would go to war.
Mobile, versatile and easily concealable weapons will also be important in the third layer, as demonstrated in Ukraine with the man-portable Javelin and Stinger missile systems that were a nightmare for Russian aircraft and tanks.
And, if China decides to invade Taiwan, will the United States enter the war? Will you send troops or weapons? Would you take any other action? The truth is we don’t know, and the U.S. he doesn’t want us to know,
As Taipei fixes its porcupine tactics, Washington sticks to the call”tactical ambiguity“In its relations with China and Taiwan. This means that the United States deliberately conceals its plan of action in case China invades Taiwan.
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan recently said, “In some ways, that ambiguity allowed us to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits for decades and across multiple administrations.”
In May, President Joe Biden was surprised by saying that his country had a “commitment” to the defense of Taiwan, although he later corrected that there was no change in “strategic ambiguity”.
This stance not only seeks to prevent China from invading Taiwan, but Taipei also refused Unable to secure United States intervention – Beijing threatened to attack if it did so – to declare its independence.
Some US congressmen have called for the country’s stance to be changed to “strategic clarity” to deter China as it ramps up its pressure on Taiwan and its military presence in the region. In any case, some believe that America will sit quietly in the face of aggression.
“You never tell your potential opponent what you want to do. But I suspect that whatever was done to stop China in the first place and thwart the attempt to take over Taiwan was just The military will not,” NATO strategy analyst Chris Parry told the BBC.
“It will be something multi-faceted that will involve commercial, financial and informational perspectives,” he explained.
China’s display of military might is disrupting routine in Taiwan, where the mood is that of indignation rather than panic.
Shipping and airlines have faced major disruption, with ships in port and flights canceled after Beijing Restrict access to areas around the island for your adventures.
by Atahualpa Ameris
World Nation News news world