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Tuesday, December 06, 2022

Tension over President in Brazil

Tension over President in Brazil

Lula and his followers have “thrown the rest” by demanding an absolute majority that would allow him to be declared president this Sunday. But when closing the timing of promotions and surveys, it was not possible to predict that they would get it.

Noting this Sunday’s elections have taken the pulse of Brazil’s referendum, no opinion study – and that period is more than a year – gave them 50 percent plus one vote of the Labor leader’s vote. Is. The party will declare itself as its president today.

Although bias toward him remains above 45 percent of voting intentions, the hard and steady vote he cast since the 2018 elections, when he was falsely accused and locked out of the way , he won’t be elected yet. Enough to destroy the ballot boxes in one go.

If that forecast is confirmed, Brazil’s most iconic popular leader will have to agree in a second round on October 30 with the man who, more than his contender, has become the number one public enemy of Brazil’s progressivism: the outgoing president. Jair Bolsonaro. Eleven candidates are on the ballot, but everyone knows the fight will be between them.

And opinion polls assure that, in the ballot, Lula will win, but candidates for re-election will hardly allow it to happen easily.

The persistent “complaints” about Bolsonaro’s alleged irregularities and the inefficiency of Brazil’s proven computerized electoral system force us to assume that if he doesn’t win, as the elections predicted, the president nails the false allegation of fraud. Stick and teeth for power, in imitation of the warlike attitude assumed by his paradigm, American Donald Trump, the promoter of disorders in the Washington Congress, who is still the former president in his country’s vision of justice.

While some analysts do not see the approach the military might adopt in the context of a volatile scenario later today and given Bolsonaro’s staging, the truth is that there is nothing to suggest that the armed forces are a bold move. Will support the coup. Nature.

Although active and retired troops – such as former Captain Bolsonaro himself – have occupied many ministries and public offices at the invitation of the president, the truth is that, more than a slingshot, they looked like a retaining wall with verbose incoherence and The president’s bad behavior—pardon the redundancy—and, yes, the endorsement of a president who at a certain moment seemed reeling because of the little genius over whom he has to rule, the object, as it has been, for of dozens of requests Impeachment Which never progressed in Congress.

The violent climate prior to these elections is to be blamed for his aggressive attitude and disposition to be ignorant of principles—disrespect is a word too short for his behavior—with attacks by his followers—the “Bolsonarista”— On Lula’s supporters, who have killed at least two people, however, outside of campaign events, there have also been violent scenes between one side and “members” of the other, expressing the view that a -How deeply inside the other they decide.

But, in reality this is not the case now. The events of the past six years can also explain the heightened sentiments of the Brazilian people when it comes to politics.

unjustly indictment The one that ousted Dilma Rousseff in 2016 and went through ten legal cases opened against Lula and her imprisonment around 2018 has attempted to discredit leftists who develop their political opponents through manipulation. Maybe, this feeling should have increased over time. The injustice experienced by the defenders of Progressivism. These are the conditions that have increased what is called observer polarization.

To finish it, Arrival in 2018 Alienation Jair Bolsonaro, without “oxygen”, without the “oxygen” expected by those who cast his vote and bets on the third way after the institutional collapse in Brazil—including the performance of Dilma’s replacement, Michel Temer— Which in many ways meant an escalation of hatred.

It cannot be ignored that this apparent “starch shortage” has won Bolsonaro his followers, as evidenced by the fact that despite more than 685,000 deaths due to his anti-scientific mistrust and mismanagement of COVID-19. Has cost 19, an atmosphere of between 33 and 38 percent of voters according to the latest polls with him, and he’s even managed to recover a lost distance against Lula.

However, the “broad front” policy adopted by the PT candidate in the wise strategy of aligning with the Center and joining all “anti-Bolsonist” forces – which are few – bore fruit, and opinion studies for the following week. awarded Lula an increase of up to 48 percent of the votes; Very, very close to the 51 percent you need.

Even a final study published Monday predicted 52 percent for the leader of the PT, which would mean an immediate and spectacular victory that would not accept any interrogation attempt.

Which is why it is sure to take the heck into the water in this first round for Brazilian progressivism.

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