Unlike other surveys, which gave an absolute majority for the PP in Galicia, led by Alfonso Rueda, the CIS ruled out the possibility of a left-wing government, even though the popular ones are the winners of the next 18F elections.
According to the body led by José Félix Tezanos, the acting Galician president will get 42.2% of the votes, between 34 and 38 deputies, the latter number marking the absolute majority of the management of the Xunta de Galicia. This figure shows a reduction of between four and eight representatives for the popular party, which gained 42 representatives in the previous regional elections held in 2020.
Data shows the possibility that the popular party will lose the absolute majority and even the government of Galicia after 15 consecutive years of popular leadership. The reason is the strong rise predicted by the Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG) barometer. The formation, with Ana Pontón as the candidate, will break the ceiling and get 32.9% of the votes, which is consolidated in the second position with a distance between 22 and 26 seats.
In this way, the nationalists can improve their results in 2020, where they are left with 19 seats. In the third position, with the result almost the same as in the previous election, is the PSdeG. The Galician socialists, led by José Ramón Gómez Besteiro, will take 20.1% of the votes, and their range in the Galician parliament will be between 13 and 15 representatives.
The amount would eliminate Rueda with a scenario similar to 2005
In the best scenario for the nationalists and socialists, projected by the CIS barometer, the amount between them will be 41 representatives, which will serve as both of them to remove Alfonso Rueda just two years after his arrival in Xunta.
The current head of the Galician Executive took over the presidency when Alberto Núñez Feijóo made the jump to national politics when he was appointed as president of the Popular Party in the Congress held in Seville in 2022, after the resignation of Pablo Casado. Rueda was a former Xunta vice president when the current opposition leader was in charge.
If this scenario happens, Galicia will have a progressive government, and the same scenario as in 2005 will be repeated. Manuel Fraga, president of the Xunta at the time, was the winner of the election but could not be the majority in governance. Eventually, the socialist Emilio Pérez Touriño became president and led a coalition government with the BNG. He was the last socialist ruler in the region until the arrival of Feijóo, who won in 2009.