“It seems that we have nothing to do with an island of two million inhabitants, small and far away. However, it is the watchdog of the West that there is so much technology concentrated there. President of the Spanish Association of Industry semiconductors (AESEMI) views Danny Moreno’s development “with concern” crisis in taiwanWhere the Chinese military is developing military maneuvers following the visit of Nancy Pelosi.
Deployment by sea and air has activated the first alarm Possible blockade of exports from countries that produce 60% of state-of-the-art microchips, With less than seven nanometers, this technology is essential to the mobile phones, computers and other digital devices we use on a daily basis. “We’ll go back 50 years, where there were TV tubes, we didn’t have cell phones, transportation was primary and there were no electric cars,” warns Moreno.
He says the hypothetical situation would be “catastrophic”, but like the rest of the analysts consulted by RTVE.es, the businessman believes that Stoppage of business is non-existent at this time and highly unlikely, Now, the current uncertainty is also being seen as a warning that the EU should not ignore. “State-of-the-art technology has determined the art of warfare and also human development,” recalls principal investigator Miguel Otero, of the Elcano Royal Institute.
What is the economic interest of the United States in a visit to Taiwan?
The United States and China have been fighting for years a technical career, But the pulse for the microchip industry is shown without humility with Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this summer. Beyond political intentions, the speaker of the US House of Representatives has not hidden his economic interests when he met Taiwanese, the world’s largest semiconductor function company, during his express trip. TSMC,
“USA. It has a vested interest in keeping Taiwan free and freely accessible within its sphere of influence. In that case, any cooperation is possible, even A TMSC factory being built in Arizona. But it won’t be operational until 2024 and that’s still a long time. I think Nancy Pelosi, in addition to her geopolitical messages, wants to make sure semiconductor sourcing By the Taiwanese company”, Otero explains. At the same time, Washington conveys its gesture that “it will be there to defend them” against China.
In this trade war, other steps have been calm, such as the recent pressure from Washington to impose sanctions on the Netherlands. Dutch company that makes machines for making microchips (ASML Holding NV) to sell its technology to Beijing.
Is there a possibility of a Chinese blockade on Taiwan’s exports?
For now, despite threats from China and warnings from Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense No serious problems have been reported in export production The military maneuvers of the island, though some planes have had to change their routes, confirmed by Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at French investment bank Natixis. “for now, risk that a blockade occurs and it has an inflationary effect on the world, the production chain, etc., it is less”, he refers.
For the analyst, the question now is how the West and Japan will react, which could lead to escalation of tensions. “My impression is that nobody is going to do anything. Maybe they will complain, there will be another statement from the G7, but no one is going to retaliate”, he says. It will be about maintaining the story that the response is just “Chinese occult”.
and in the line “Patalio” and Beijing’s “cosmetic remedy” Enrique Fanjul, editor of Iberchina.org and professor of master’s degree in international relations at the University of San Pablo CEU at RNE, has also had an impact. “The economic ties between China and Taiwan are very strong.: China imports chips from Taiwan, there are thousands of Taiwanese companies that have invested in China. I do not believe that Beijing is going to carry out significant commercial and economic blockade measures,” he says.
What effect could China’s sanctions have on Taiwan?
When Nancy Pelosi was visiting Taiwanese officials, China has suspended exports of natural sand to the island and halted some imports of fruit and fish. This was one of the first reactions of the Asian giant after several threats, however, the measure does not seem very powerful.
“We have calculated it and it does not reach 2% of Taiwan’s imports. This is not a problem and of course there are ways to avoid the ban. with sand (which is used in the manufacture of microchips for silicon), the same, which will not stop producing semiconductors”, says Alicia García-Herrero from Natixis, after analyzing the details of the Chinese retaliation for investors.
President Xi Jinping’s hands are tied on trade measures because he can’t do without Taiwanese microchips either. “China acts as the assembler of electronic products and cannot impose restrictions on that supply chain. It wouldn’t make any sense if suddenly a chip comes from Taiwan that they can’t import.”Alberto LeBron, an economist valued at RNE, researcher at Peking University.
In this sense, China and the United States share a destiny: the two superpowers rely on Taiwan’s industry to acquire the latest generation of semiconductors.
Can economic measures measure up?
García-Herrero previously described how a wrong move by Japan could result in escalating tensions in the Strait of Formosa, but most of the responsibility falls on the Chinese side.
“In fact, protests are taking place in China because it is believed that the government has not done enough. And be careful, they may feel compelled [a responder con más contundencia]”, warned an expert economist for the Asia-Pacific. But he adds another pertinent circumstance: “we are about to enter”. An important political moment for Xi Jinping. I guess he dare not let anything go wrong, on Putin. That is to say, whatever can move, it turns”.
Thus, both García-Herrero and LeBron from China, rely on him. Taiwan crisis ends with the end of military exercises This Sunday, however, tensions between the parties may remain high. Then the economic consequences for the West will be more subtle.
In this context, analysts do not rule out that Companies look for alternatives To avoid supply problems caused by the conflict in Asia: “It may not happen today, but we all know we will be in that situation at some point”.
How will this affect the EU?
Like the war in Ukraine, Taiwan’s crisis is also showing rapidity European Union for its reliance on strategic sectors. Energy, semiconductors… Since twenty-seven work counter-clockwise to preserve the winter with less gas, the shortage of microchips is huge. This is the second time this has happened after disruptions to international trade due to the pandemic.
The supply crisis has weighed on the automobile industry in Spain and threatens the competitiveness of companies in northern Europe, warns principal investigator Miguel Otero of the Elcano Royal Institute, although he believes that Europe has a “clear evidence”. Start developing your own technology industry.
“There is a recognition that we have been left behind and now there is a whole thorough initiatives and legislative actions To change this”, he says, referring to the European chip legislation with a 2,000 million euro fund. Spain also launched its strategic project in the recovery plan after the health crisis. But the European figures are pale in comparison to the superpowers. For example, US President Joe Biden will sign a $52.7 billion aid package next Tuesday to bolster the national microchip sector.
Furthermore, researchers from the Elcano Royal Institute show that the change in mobility is profound. This is not a crisis in any one sector. From a globalized world whose value chain extends across the globe, we have moved the need for strategic autonomy, “of right on time, arriving on time Maybe it is necessary. That is, for diversification, for having plan B”, he summarized.
And in these new waters, according to Otero, lies the difficulty for Brussels. Combine your values of “interdependence, multilateralism, supernaturalism and the rules of the game” with survival in a wild world. All this without reason, moreover, “a big spiral towards that stream”. He “should not be naive and prepare himself for whatever may come, but must assert his DNA”. Danny Moreno, president of the Spanish Association of Semiconductors (AESEMI), is confident that this will happen and “the West will open its eyes” in time.