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Monday, January 24, 2022

The November employment report is expected to show another significant gain.

The trajectory of the economy as the holidays approach and the end of a tumultuous year approaching will be the focus of attention on Friday morning, when the government releases data on hiring and unemployment in November.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect 550,000 jobs – a reliable number that points to economic momentum. In October, employers added 531,000 jobs, and the number of initial jobless claims recently hit a 52-year low.

The unemployment rate is expected to fall one tenth of a percentage point to 4.5 percent.

Employment has been helped by a weakening of the spread of the delta coronavirus in many places and an increase in recruitment in bars and restaurants, as well as in shops, offices and factories. The emergence of the Omicron variant threatens some of these gains, but it is too early to assess the risk to the economy.

“We should continue to see strong job growth as the demand for labor is heating up, but there is a limit on the possible acceleration as the pandemic is still ongoing,” said Daniel Zhao, senior economist at job site Glassdoor.

He expects the report to show the large number of employees in the retail, transportation and warehousing sectors as companies are staffed in anticipation of holiday demand.

Despite a limited labor market and good hiring in recent times, the economy still lacks about four million jobs to pre-pandemic levels. Around one-third of these positions are in the leisure and hospitality sector, which would be vulnerable if the Omicron variant turns out to be as dangerous as the Delta variant, limiting travel and meetings.

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“It’s a risk, but it probably won’t show up until Christmas,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West in San Francisco. “This could be a problem in the new year. We are still dealing with the Covid pandemic and there are risks to the economy and hiring. ”

Throughout the fall, the trajectory of the economy has been characterized by conflicting signals.

The “layoff rate,” a measure of employee layoffs as a share of total employment, was at or close to an all-time high, indicating that workers are confident that they can navigate the labor market and find something better. But the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey has fallen to levels not seen since the sluggish recovery from the 2007-2009 recession.

The report notes that “there is growing confidence among consumers that effective policies have not yet been developed to mitigate the damage from soaring inflation.” Buyers face the highest inflation in 31 years. In October, prices rose 6.2 percent from a year earlier.

However, the markets remained relatively calm. Major stock indices are up impressive levels this year. And bond yields, which tend to rise amid inflation, remain close to record lows, indicating that investors do not view inflation as a long-term threat to the economy or financial stability.

World Nation News Deskhttps://www.worldnationnews.com
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