The political scientist Piero Trepiccione considers that the primary provides a “new legitimacy of origin” that will allow the recomposition of opposition political leadership.
The election on October 22 also revealed, in his opinion, that “there is a new combination of a social majority not satisfied with (Nicolás) Maduro.”
Below is the interview given by the public opinion and advocacy consultant Cocuyo effect.
-You confirm that today a new legitimacy of origin has emerged, expand on this point and comment on what political consequences we can expect?
-The leadership of the opposition in Venezuela is governed basically based on the results of 2015 (parliamentary elections of that year) and after the 2021 regional elections in which some parties, due to the judicialization of their cards, cannot participate directly except through various alliances.
Esa composition of forceswhere the opposition leadership is managed, left out of time and disconnected from the reality of the country.
This main event allows, even in the midst of a bad climate, the difficulties and obstacles, the complete invisibility on the part of the traditional media, a mobilization and a result that gives a new legitimacy it will surely allow the political leadership of the opposition to recompose.
The consequences are that there must be a change in the opposition in Venezuela. From this event there is a concentration of popular support around a political person, in this case Maria Corina Machado which is the virtual winner of the event.
It does not matter if the government assumes a more flexible position and allows its registration or the opposite happens, it will have a significant weight in the next political decisions to be made.
-In areas that were once considered bastions of Chavismo, high participation was seen. What do you read into it?
-The latest study by Delphos and the Center for Political and Government Studies of UCAB shows that 85% of the country has broad desire for change. This means that we are in a very different country, with very different variables of political affiliations and detachments than a year ago. This can be seen in popular and rural sectors where, despite obstacles, people are mobilizing.
That tells you that there is a new paradigm in the country’s elections, there is a new integration of a social majority not satisfied with Maduro who has an important weight in any type of election held in Venezuela from now on.
The effect of María Corina
-Unity and speech are ongoing things waiting for the opposition. Is María Corina Machado a figure that unites or, on the contrary, divides?
-He already has a fundamental role in the leadership of the country and it will depend on how he acts and accepts this historical witness given to him today. If he does it with humility and a lot of attention, he will be the best cheerleader in this Venezuelan political process for at least the next decade. If you think about it in an egocentric way it will cause a lot of noise.
What should be clear is that there will not be a single opposition candidate in 2024 because the government will promote many candidates, it is normal to do this, but it does not mean that the un unitary message. Venezuelan society is speaking loud and clear today about the need for a unitary narrative.
The desire for change has begun to shape the country’s political horizon and this is a reading that must be done right by the leadership if it wants to align itself with this broad and growing trend.
In the case of Carlos Prosperi For me this is a very strange behavior, incomprehensible from the point of view of strategy and political logic. There are characters with strange positions that will seek to break and undermine the desire for change, these are political operations.
-In Chavismo, one of the readings is that Machado’s victory favors Maduro because he was able to end any possible G4 candidate and consolidate a candidacy that cannot register in 2024. What do you think about this?
-It is logical to a certain extent, remember that it is a process negotiations bilateral between the US and Venezuela. Although Maduro has declared that there will be no revolt disqualifications We don’t know that, there is still a lot of water flowing under the bridge.
In fact, the command of María Corina and himself should be cold to think about what political and strategic calculation from now on, he has become the main reference of the opposition in the country.
Assuming it is not enabled, within its strategic parameters it can promote a symbolic candidacy He is the real candidate who is going around the country. You can raise a “real” nominal candidate before the institutions, but let his face drive the electoral process.
Today’s event provides a political muscle important thing that can change things, it does not mean to fall into madness because with the percentages of support that Machado in a moderately competitive election it is impossible for Chavismo to defeat him and, in that sense , he will do everything possible to close. the way for him..
-Can the Barbados effect achieve any concessions on the issue of disqualifications?
-I see from now on the government is more closed at that point just because of realpolitik things, if you take a measure now the voting intention of the country will be, in the best cases, 70% in favor of María Corina Machado and 30 % from Nicolás Maduro. The government’s reaction to this issue has been closed.
Obviously the spirit of Barbados, world geopolitics, the world context and certain circumstances will help to break that position, but that is the most critical point.
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