The PSC will rise and win the elections in Catalonia by a long shot (with a range of between 39 and 45 deputies) ahead of the ERC (29–34) and especially the Junts (19–24 seats), according to the official survey of the Generalitat published at the same time as the investiture of Pedro Sánchez and brought to full negotiations with the PSOE.
In fact, Puigdemont’s party continues in free fall, losing more than a third of its votes—it now has 32 representatives—and the independence movement will be left without an absolute majority in the Parliament for the first time since the start of the “procés” .
The PP advances along a diametrically opposite line: Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s party will make a significant leap and quintuple its results in Catalonia by going from the current three seats to the order between 12 and 17 in Parliament.
Comunes, the partners of Yolanda Díaz and Sumar, also advance and get between 10 and 14 (now they have 8), Vox returns and stays between 6 and 9, and CUP falls to 4 and 8 from the current. 9, and the Cs will lose its six seats and disappear from the Catalan Chamber, its birthplace.
Therefore, the independence movement will lose the absolute majority in all cases, in total in the upper part (66 seats) and in the lower part (52), an unprecedented fact that has not happened since 2006, although in 2010 Convergència was created. He did not present himself with a program of freedom. In other words, this new survey ends the political “procés” more than a decade ago and is in line with the agreements between the ERC and Puigdemont of the PSOE for management.
The field work of the Generalitat survey, made on the basis of 2,000 interviews, took place from October 9 to November 7, amid negotiations between the Republicans and post-convergents with the PSOE before the inauguration of Sánchez.
The Catalan socialists will also win the elections of the Congress of Deputies, achieving between 15 and 18 seats, below the 19 obtained in the previous general elections, followed by the PP, which will increase to 9–11 seats.