The US policy has marked the development of the world’s financial markets this week. The current negotiation between Republicans and Democrats to raise the debt ceiling (and thus avoid default) has caused a small earthquake in certain tax markets, where each day, without an agreement, investors have demanded a little more to buy the country’s debt. .
Bills with shorter maturities are the ones that have felt the most pressure. For example, the six-month yield jumped to 6.8%. As an idea, at the beginning of the year the figure was about 4.5%. In other words, they are now demanding much more for the same bonds.
European stock markets also suffered volatility during the week that went from low to high, with strong rises on Friday due to reports that pointed to a looming alliance across the Atlantic.
Ibex-35 advanced 0.82% which was not enough to cover the accumulated losses after Monday, including 0.65%. Elective thus withdraws from the 9,200 points that only cost to knock.
In Friday’s session, Fluidra’s main value rose (+2.11%), ahead of ArcelorMittal (+1.80%), Indra (+1.67%), Rovi (+1.64%), CaixaBank (+1.63%) and Acerinox (+1.56%). On the other hand, Solaria (-0.94%), Sacyr (-0.89%), Acciona Energías Renovabiles (-0.63%), Bankinter (-0.62%) and Unicaja Banco (-0.53%) stood out. %).
After all, while waiting for the final agreement, nervousness will continue to mark the next sessions. “There are Republican leaders who already demonstrated on Thursday that the legislators of the last wings of both sides will not be pleased at all,” analysts say. That is, even in harmony, the differences will remain strong.
For now, investors are relying on macroeconomic data that suggests the US can avoid a recession. On the same Friday, the pain of the trust of the University of Michigan was known, the main sign to feel the health of that column – phthisis – in the first world power. And the data is much better than expected. Specifically, it reached 59.2 points, compared to the 57.9 expected by the market.
But be careful. Because Friday is known as the personal loss price index (PCE), one of the inflation data in which the Federal Reserve (H) pays most attention to make monetary policy decisions. In April it unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, while the underlying (which excludes energy and fresh food) continues to soar to 4.7%.
Conclusion: the pain of resistance and too high inflation still reinforces the belief that the country’s central bank may choose to move interest rates again in June or July, withdrawing from the expected delay in the cyclical cycle that investors already conceded a few weeks ago.