We ask Efrain Arroyo Franco the following question: Can you give us your take on the US unemployment rate? To which, experts give us the following answer:
A very slight change in the US unemployment rate (3.7%), which rises 3/10th of a percentage point over the month of April, but confirms the stability it has enjoyed for a little over a year, when it remained the same. or even better rates returned to those of the pre-pandemic era.
As always and to make it relevant it must be remembered that full employment is one of the mandates of the Federal Reserve along with price stability.
Although inflation is a real headache, there is not much to decry in the case of full employment. With the unemployment rate very stable for over a year now, around 3.5%, the US currently enjoys the lowest unemployment rate since 1969, registering 3.4% in the months of January and April of this year.
For practical purposes, the dance of the tenth up and down has hardly any relevance to the economy or the markets, although this new data could cause some concern if it turns into a change in trend that we should see confirmed in the coming months. Will be ,
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– Pablo Gil (@PabloGilTrader) June 2, 2023
This twin task of central regulation, price stability and full employment means that it is necessary to tread very closely and put highly qualified technicians in charge of these institutions because of how to manage the conflicting factors to some extent. . Not an easy job..
The interesting dilemma here focuses on how to ensure that the extraordinary political and economic messaging that emphasizes full employment does not create inflationary stress in the economy, subjecting the entire system to aggressive increases in rates. being done.
and is that such a low unemployment rate has inflationary effects in the economy, as the labor factor is usually decisive when determining the selling price of products and services, as well as being the best social policy. . Applied in an economy, saving cost for subsidies to the state and increasing tax collection, which should have an effect on better public services for citizens which increases quality of life indices of the population.
Finally, we’ll refer to the unemployment rate, which is usually announced alongside the unemployment rate and includes individuals who want to work and have looked for jobs in the past year, which is usually measured by the monthly unemployment rate. represents a higher percentage. This under-employment rate also maintains a fairly regular and steady trend of around 6.7%, which is again great data.
The last reflection is done alone. Western economies in general and North American economies in particular are in an undeniable state of convulsions, with extreme debt, high inflation, oxygenated by expanding spending limits with volatility and rising prices. Interest rates, with bank failures, polarization of society into opposing camps… and in this context we find the best unemployment figures in the last 50 years. Is it possible?
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