More than 19 months have passed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. After almost 600 days, Ukrainian troops are betting on drones to repel Russian aggression as Moscow seeks to strengthen its arsenals with the help of North Korea, which has significantly increased Russian rail transport. But the war continues unabated, and recently, the Ukrainian General Staff assured that the Kyiv Army continues to attack Russian troops with some success in two important sections of the front in the east and south of the country. Expert Carolyn Dudek, professor of Political Science and European Politics at Hofstra University (NY), analyzed for LA RAZÓN the situation of the Ukrainian counter-offensive and the future of the conflict in Eastern Europe.
Will the new Slovakian government support the EU in Ukraine?
The Slovak election results are problematic, but at the same time, like Hungary, if they want to benefit from the benefits of EU membership, they are not interested in stopping funding or arms shipments to Ukraine. Slovakia’s individual contribution to Ukraine is not significant, so its individual impact on the war effort may be negligible. They may paralyze some movement in the EU, but in the end, there are enough EU members who are strongly in favor of supporting Ukraine, and those countries can withhold funding for things that Slovakia wants.
Is there fear of a complete transfer of support from the US and NATO once Trump reaches the White House?
Undoubtedly, a Trump administration means a change in policy. Financial support for Ukraine also depends on Congress, which holds the purse strings. The 2024 election may also influence the composition of the House of Representatives and the Senate. If there is enough political will in Congress to support Ukraine, US policy may not be as volatile as one might think. The United States is not interested in leaving Europe. However, the last Trump administration proved not to be pro-European. The change in administration will have a negative impact on the war in Ukraine and may leave Europe “alone.”
Will the slowness of the Ukrainian counteroffensive turn the war in Russia’s favor?
From a political or diplomatic point of view, the longer the war continues, the more difficult it is to get support from Europe and the United States to pay for it. We are starting to see members of Congress asking for support, and the elections in Slovakia also suggest that Europeans have similar problems.