Russia’s war against Ukraine will not end in 2022, but could last at least a year. However, today the war has really come to a standstill, its intensity is decreasing.
Half a year has passed since the war, but neither Ukraine nor Russia is ready to stop hostilities, despite their losses.
The Guardian writes about this in its article with five predictions for the next six months of the war.
the war can last a year
The article says that Ukraine wants to return the territories it has occupied, and Russia wants to continue to harm not only its enemy, but indirectly, the West as well. together The Kremlin believes that winter will play into its hands.
No negotiations took place between the parties after evidence emerged of mass killings in Butch, Irpen and other areas of the Russian-occupied Kyiv region.
“But movement on the front line was minimal after the fall of Lysychansk in late June. Both sides are fighting for the initiative and seem increasingly war-weary,” the article says.
Ukraine has no means of effective conventional counterattack. However, partisan raids are an optimistic way to hasten the defeat of Russia.
Ukraine would like to remove the occupation of Kherson. However, an anonymous representative of the administration acknowledged that “we do not have sufficient capabilities to overcome them.” Ukraine has changed its strategy of launching long-range missile strikes and raided Russian positions deep behind special forces.
The goal was to “create anarchy within Russian forces”, said Mykhailo Podolik, an adviser to the head of the presidential office. This would reduce the effectiveness of Russian troops, however. It is unlikely that in the end the captors will fall on their own and surrender voluntarily to KhersonAs some Ukrainian officials expected.
The Russian Federation still wants to move forward. However, his attention can be focused on maintaining his advantage and occupying the territory of Ukraine.
The article states that Russia has no new offensive plans. Only – to destroy cities with massive artillery attacks and pave the way forward. The Russian military resorts to such actions because it is effective, and partly – to minimize losses.
Invading troops are using this tactic around Bakhmut in the Donbass. However, progress is slow, partly because Russia had to redeploy part of its army to reinforce Kherson.
,The Kremlin may not have achieved what it had hoped for at the start of the war, but now Russia owns large areas of Ukrainian territory in the east and south, and is actively talking about holding a “referendum” on the merger. With colder weather approaching, he will focus on consolidating what he has,” the publication said.
Winter will intensify a new refugee crisis. But there will be an opportunity for those who can prepare well.
The authors of the article noted that winter is very important in a strategic sense for both sides. Ukraine is concerned about humanitarian problems, gas heating is no longer available in the Donetsk region and other border areas. A representative of a humanitarian organization predicts that in winter there will be a new wave of migration. Perhaps two million people will cross the border with Poland.
“The Russians see winter as an opportunity. Ukraine fears Russia will target its energy system, exacerbate the heating problem, and may simply shut down the huge Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. Moscow also costs the West at wants to continue the suffering. There is every reason to increase the energy carrier and pressure,” – says the material
However, spring may be the time for a new invasion – Both the Russian Federation and Ukraine want to replenish supplies and prepare for another season of war.
The West will have to decide whether it wants to conquer Ukraine or just stay.
At the same time, measures should be taken to match humanitarian aid with the urgent need.
“Ukraine would have been defeated without Western military aid. But So far the West has not provided enough artillery or other weapons, Such as the fighter jets that would allow Kyiv to repulse the invaders. Politicians talk about the need to push Russia back to the pre-war borders, but they do not provide a sufficient amount of equipment for this,” said the authors of the publication.
together Ukraine’s humanitarian needs are increasing, Yes, there is not enough money for reconstruction. Therefore, many houses in the north-east and north-west of Kyiv have been destroyed. And desperate residents live in garages or temporary buildings.
Internally displaced persons often have to live in schools or kindergartens, temporary housing, where it is difficult for them to stay for a long time.
Ukraine’s budget deficit due to the war is $5 billion. per month, and aid and reconstruction will cost several times more.
It will be remembered that the head of Ukrainian intelligence Kyrlo Budanov said that the turning point in the war had already begun.
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